Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM UNTIL
100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GLASGOW MONTANA TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
GLENDIVE MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...WW 554...WW
555...WW 556...WW 557...
DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MT OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS
LOCATED NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN SERN MT...STRONG ELY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 558 SEVERE TSTM MT 070125Z - 070700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNE GGW/GLASGOW MT/ - 60WSW GDV/GLENDIVE MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /44NNE GGW - 25N MLS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 48860411 46770395 46770798 48860829
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 558 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 558
VALID 070555Z - 070640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MLS TO
20 W GDV TO 30 W SDY TO 30 ENE OLF TO 40 N OLF TO 45 NNW OLF TO
65 N OLF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470.
..EDWARDS..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-079-083-085-091-109-070640-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 558
VALID 070435Z - 070540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLS
TO 35 SW OLF TO 50 NNW GGW.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1470.
..PETERS..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-055-079-083-085-091-105-109-070540-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE
PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT
SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 558
VALID 070350Z - 070440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MLS TO
20 SW GGW TO 60 NNW GGW.
..IMY..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-055-079-083-085-091-105-109-070440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE
PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT
SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 558
VALID 070240Z - 070340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/07/09
ATTN...WFO...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC019-021-033-055-071-079-083-085-091-105-109-070340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS DAWSON GARFIELD
MCCONE PHILLIPS PRAIRIE
RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN
VALLEY WIBAUX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.