Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
TEKAMAH NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CU/TCU FIELD AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD...AND WILL LIKELY TRACK
EASTWARD INTO IA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THIS SAME AREA AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
STRONG INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 568 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 100005Z - 100700Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25WNW OTG/WORTHINGTON MN/ - 15SSW TQE/TEKAMAH NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /33ENE FSD - 34NW OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 43779413 41549444 41549812 43779794
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 568 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 568
VALID 100640Z - 100700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FOD
TO 5 NW SLB TO 15 SE OTG TO 25 WNW FRM.
WW 568 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100700Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508.
..PETERS..07/10/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-025-041-059-063-091-109-147-151-187-100700-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CLAY
DICKINSON EMMET HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 568
VALID 100555Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW DSM
TO 10 NNE TQE TO 10 S SUX TO 35 NE OFK TO 20 ESE YKN TO 35 W YKN
TO 35 WNW YKN TO 25 N YKN TO 15 WSW FSD TO 25 NE FSD.
..PETERS..07/10/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-091-093-109-119-141-143-
147-149-151-161-167-187-193-100640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL
CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD
DICKINSON EMMET GREENE
HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH
LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA
PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS
SAC SIOUX WEBSTER
WOODBURY
$$
MNC063-105-133-100640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC043-051-100640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAKOTA DIXON
$$
SDC009-027-083-125-127-135-100640-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY LINCOLN
TURNER UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 568
VALID 100435Z - 100540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/10/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-091-093-109-
119-133-141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-187-193-100540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH
LYON MONONA O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH
POCAHONTAS SAC SHELBY
SIOUX WEBSTER WOODBURY
$$
MNC063-105-133-100540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-011-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-107-119-139-141-167-173-
177-179-100540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
PLATTE STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
SDC009-027-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-100540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HANSON
HUTCHINSON LINCOLN MCCOOK
MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 568
VALID 100345Z - 100440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/10/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-091-093-109-
119-133-141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-187-193-100440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH
LYON MONONA O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH
POCAHONTAS SAC SHELBY
SIOUX WEBSTER WOODBURY
$$
MNC063-105-133-100440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-011-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-107-119-139-141-167-173-
177-179-100440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
PLATTE STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
SDC009-027-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-100440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HANSON
HUTCHINSON LINCOLN MCCOOK
MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 568
VALID 100140Z - 100240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/10/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 568
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-021-025-027-035-041-047-059-063-073-077-085-091-093-109-
119-133-141-143-147-149-151-161-165-167-187-193-100240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN
CARROLL CHEROKEE CLAY
CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET
GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON
HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH
LYON MONONA O'BRIEN
OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH
POCAHONTAS SAC SHELBY
SIOUX WEBSTER WOODBURY
$$
MNC063-105-133-100240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACKSON NOBLES ROCK
$$
NEC003-011-021-027-037-039-043-051-053-107-119-139-141-167-173-
177-179-100240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
DAKOTA DIXON DODGE
KNOX MADISON PIERCE
PLATTE STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$
SDC009-027-061-067-083-087-099-125-127-135-100240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CLAY HANSON
HUTCHINSON LINCOLN MCCOOK
MINNEHAHA TURNER UNION
YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.