SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW
   YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PROGRESS EWD FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   ISOLATED TORNADOES
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW
   YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PROGRESS EWD FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL0
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND UPSTATE NEW YORK
          LAKE ONTARIO
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   SARANAC LAKE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ELMIRA NEW
   YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   PROGRESS EWD FROM WRN INTO CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...AND LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
   SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   WOUS64 KWNS 111454
   WOU0
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 570 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-037-041-043-045-
   049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-107-109-117-
   121-123-112200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0570.090711T1500Z-090711T2200Z/
   
   NY 
   .    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ALLEGANY             BROOME              CATTARAUGUS         
   CAYUGA               CHAUTAUQUA          CHEMUNG             
   CHENANGO             CLINTON             CORTLAND            
   ESSEX                FRANKLIN            GENESEE             
   HAMILTON             HERKIMER            JEFFERSON           
   LEWIS                LIVINGSTON          MADISON             
   MONROE               ONEIDA              ONONDAGA            
   ONTARIO              ORLEANS             OSWEGO              
   SCHUYLER             SENECA              ST. LAWRENCE        
   STEUBEN              TIOGA               TOMPKINS            
   WAYNE                WYOMING             YATES               
   
   
   LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-112200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0570.090711T1500Z-090711T2200Z/
   
   CW 
   
   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 
   
   HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
   TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 
   
   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 
   
   ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...
   
   
   

   SAW0 
   WW 570 SEVERE TSTM NY LO 111500Z - 112200Z
   AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   45NW SLK/SARANAC LAKE NY/ - 35WSW ELM/ELMIRA NY/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /7SW MSS - 34NE SLT/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
   
   LAT...LON 44837331 41977606 41977898 44837637
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU0.
   

Watch 570 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 570

VALID 112050Z - 112140Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ELM TO
25 SSE SLK.

..KERR..07/11/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC007-017-031-041-043-053-107-112140-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOME		     CHENANGO		 ESSEX		     
HAMILTON	     HERKIMER		 MADISON	     
TIOGA		     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 570

VALID 111930Z - 112040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..07/11/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-037-041-043-045-
049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-107-109-117-
121-123-112040-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CLINTON		 CORTLAND	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GENESEE	     
HAMILTON	     HERKIMER		 JEFFERSON	     
LEWIS		     LIVINGSTON 	 MADISON	     
MONROE		     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
ST. LAWRENCE	     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     TIOGA		 TOMPKINS	     
WAYNE		     WYOMING		 YATES		     
$$


LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-112040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 570

VALID 111845Z - 111940Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..07/11/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-037-041-043-045-
049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-107-109-117-
121-123-111940-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CLINTON		 CORTLAND	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GENESEE	     
HAMILTON	     HERKIMER		 JEFFERSON	     
LEWIS		     LIVINGSTON 	 MADISON	     
MONROE		     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
ST. LAWRENCE	     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     TIOGA		 TOMPKINS	     
WAYNE		     WYOMING		 YATES		     
$$


LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-111940-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 570

VALID 111645Z - 111740Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..07/11/09

ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 570 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NYC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-031-033-037-041-043-045-
049-051-053-055-065-067-069-073-075-089-097-099-101-107-109-117-
121-123-111740-

NY 
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY	     BROOME		 CATTARAUGUS	     
CAYUGA		     CHAUTAUQUA 	 CHEMUNG	     
CHENANGO	     CLINTON		 CORTLAND	     
ESSEX		     FRANKLIN		 GENESEE	     
HAMILTON	     HERKIMER		 JEFFERSON	     
LEWIS		     LIVINGSTON 	 MADISON	     
MONROE		     ONEIDA		 ONONDAGA	     
ONTARIO 	     ORLEANS		 OSWEGO 	     
ST. LAWRENCE	     SCHUYLER		 SENECA 	     
STEUBEN 	     TIOGA		 TOMPKINS	     
WAYNE		     WYOMING		 YATES		     
$$


LOZ043-044-045-063-064-065-SLZ022-024-111740-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER 

HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

MEXICO BAY NY TO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE
TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER ABOVE OGDENSBURG NY 

ST. LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO ST. REGIS NY 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.