Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 755 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF FORT LEONARD WOOD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 573...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED CELLS
INVOF SURFACE FRONT AND PERHAPS A MORE ORGANIZED BOWING LINE
SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS WW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE SHOULD MCS
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT TURNS MORE SEWD THIS MORNING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 574 SEVERE TSTM MO 121255Z - 121800Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
40WSW SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/ - 25S TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /18NE BUM - 57E SGF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33035.
LAT...LON 39069383 37959173 36819251 37919462
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 574 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 574
VALID 121730Z - 121800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W UNO TO
25 SSW JEF AND 35 W UNO TO 15 SSW TBN TO 15 S VIH.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 574 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
12/18Z.
..KERR..07/12/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-161-215-121800-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT PHELPS TEXAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 574
VALID 121650Z - 121740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W UNO TO
25 SSW JEF.
BUT...THE SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND REMAINING
VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
..KERR..07/12/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC065-105-125-161-169-215-229-121740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DENT LACLEDE MARIES
PHELPS PULASKI TEXAS
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 574
VALID 121530Z - 121640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SGF TO
35 N SGF TO 50 S SZL TO 25 E SZL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533.
..KERR..07/12/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC015-029-059-065-077-085-105-125-131-141-161-167-169-215-225-
229-121640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN DALLAS
DENT GREENE HICKORY
LACLEDE MARIES MILLER
MORGAN PHELPS POLK
PULASKI TEXAS WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 574
VALID 121440Z - 121540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/12/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 574
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC015-029-039-057-059-065-077-085-105-125-131-141-161-167-169-
185-215-217-225-229-121540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR
DADE DALLAS DENT
GREENE HICKORY LACLEDE
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS POLK PULASKI
ST. CLAIR TEXAS VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.