Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND PART OF EASTERN MONTANA
PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS MONTANA TO 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF GLASGOW
MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 576...WW 577...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...MEAD/THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 578 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 131900Z - 140200Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60SSE BIL/BILLINGS MT/ - 80NW GGW/GLASGOW MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /44WNW SHR - 69NW GGW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 44970990 49000984 49000587 44970622
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 578 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 578
VALID 140130Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW SHR
TO 50 NE BIL TO 60 SSW GGW TO 65 N GGW.
..JEWELL..07/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-011-017-025-033-055-075-087-103-105-140240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER
FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE
VALLEY
$$
WYC033-140240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 578
VALID 140030Z - 140140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE COD TO
45 SE LWT TO 50 NE LWT TO 45 N LWT TO 50 NNE HVR.
..JEWELL..07/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-011-017-025-033-055-065-069-071-075-087-103-105-111-
140140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER
CUSTER FALLON GARFIELD
MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD
TREASURE VALLEY YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 578
VALID 132345Z - 140040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE GTF
TO 35 NW LWT TO 45 N LWT TO 45 NNE HVR.
..JEWELL..07/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-009-011-017-025-027-033-037-045-055-065-067-069-071-
075-087-095-097-103-105-107-111-140040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY
JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL
PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD STILLWATER
SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY
WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 578
VALID 132040Z - 132140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..07/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-009-015-027-033-037-041-045-051-055-065-067-069-071-
087-095-097-103-105-107-111-132140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON
CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD
GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN
LIBERTY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL
PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-132140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 578
VALID 131940Z - 132040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..07/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-009-015-027-033-037-041-045-051-055-065-067-069-071-
087-095-097-103-105-107-111-132040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON
CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD
GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN
LIBERTY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL
PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-132040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.