Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE MO
IN ADVANCE OF A REMNANT MCV. A BELT OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
THE MCV AND MLCAPE AOA 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 585 SEVERE TSTM MO 151950Z - 160200Z
AXIS..40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
65WNW UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/ - 5S CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 35NM N/S /23SE SGF - 44SE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 37689295 37728956 36568956 36529295
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 585 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 585
VALID 160000Z - 160140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE POF
TO 5 S CGI.
WW 585 HAS BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED TO NOW INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KY.
..GUYER..07/15/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC035-039-075-083-105-157-160140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MARSHALL
$$
MOC133-143-201-160140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 585
VALID 152300Z - 160040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ARG
TO 15 NNE POF TO 25 E FAM.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
..GUYER..07/15/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-160040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 585
VALID 152155Z - 152240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/15/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC017-023-031-035-043-065-067-091-093-123-133-143-149-153-157-
179-181-201-203-207-209-213-215-223-229-152240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CHRISTIAN DENT
DOUGLAS HOWELL IRON
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
OREGON OZARK PERRY
REYNOLDS RIPLEY SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD STONE
TANEY TEXAS WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 585
VALID 152040Z - 152140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..07/15/09
ATTN...WFO...PAH...SGF...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC017-023-031-035-043-065-067-091-093-123-133-143-149-153-157-
179-181-201-203-207-209-213-215-223-229-152140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CHRISTIAN DENT
DOUGLAS HOWELL IRON
MADISON MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
OREGON OZARK PERRY
REYNOLDS RIPLEY SCOTT
SHANNON STODDARD STONE
TANEY TEXAS WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.