SEL6
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   605 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   JACKSON TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 585...
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD FROM MO INTO NE AR
   HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION AND ACCELERATION IN THE
   PAST HOUR...AND THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 44 KT
   WINDS WITH THIS CLUSTER IN NE AR.  DESPITE RATHER MODEST FLOW OVER
   NE AR/WRN TN...A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 30030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL6
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   605 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
   
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   JACKSON TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 585...
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD FROM MO INTO NE AR
   HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION AND ACCELERATION IN THE
   PAST HOUR...AND THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 44 KT
   WINDS WITH THIS CLUSTER IN NE AR.  DESPITE RATHER MODEST FLOW OVER
   NE AR/WRN TN...A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 30030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   SEL6
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   605 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          WESTERN TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 605 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   JACKSON TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 585...
   
   DISCUSSION...THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING SEWD FROM MO INTO NE AR
   HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION AND ACCELERATION IN THE
   PAST HOUR...AND THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS OF 44 KT
   WINDS WITH THIS CLUSTER IN NE AR.  DESPITE RATHER MODEST FLOW OVER
   NE AR/WRN TN...A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 30030.
   
   
   ...THOMPSON

   WOUS64 KWNS 152259
   WOU6
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   605 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-093-111-121-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0586.090715T2305Z-090716T0400Z/
   
   AR 
   .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   CLAY                 CRAIGHEAD           CRITTENDEN          
   CROSS                GREENE              LAWRENCE            
   MISSISSIPPI          POINSETT            RANDOLPH            
   
   
   MOC069-155-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0586.090715T2305Z-090716T0400Z/
   
   MO 
   .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   DUNKLIN              PEMISCOT            
   
   
   TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
   157-167-183-160400-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0586.090715T2305Z-090716T0400Z/
   
   TN 
   .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   CARROLL              CHESTER             CROCKETT            
   DECATUR              DYER                FAYETTE             
   GIBSON               HARDEMAN            HAYWOOD             
   HENDERSON            HENRY               LAKE                
   LAUDERDALE           MADISON             OBION               
   SHELBY               TIPTON              WEAKLEY             
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...
   
   
   

   SAW6 
   WW 586 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 152305Z - 160400Z
   AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
   20SSW ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/ - 45ENE MKL/JACKSON TN/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /16SSW ARG - 57E DYR/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
   
   LAT...LON 36509106 36508818 35208818 35209106
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU6.
   

Watch 586 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 586

VALID 160145Z - 160240Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MEM TO
35 ENE MKL TO 40 SSE PAH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572

..GUYER..07/16/09

ATTN...WFO...MEG...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TNC017-023-039-047-069-071-077-079-109-113-157-160240-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL 	     CHESTER		 DECATUR	     
FAYETTE 	     HARDEMAN		 HARDIN 	     
HENDERSON	     HENRY		 MCNAIRY	     
MADISON 	     SHELBY		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 586

VALID 152355Z - 160040Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..GUYER..07/15/09

ATTN...WFO...MEG...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-093-111-121-160040-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY		     CRAIGHEAD		 CRITTENDEN	     
CROSS		     GREENE		 LAWRENCE	     
MISSISSIPPI	     POINSETT		 RANDOLPH	     
$$


MOC069-155-160040-

MO 
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DUNKLIN 	     PEMISCOT		 
$$


TNC017-023-033-039-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-
157-167-183-160040-

TN 
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARROLL 	     CHESTER		 CROCKETT	     
DECATUR 	     DYER		 FAYETTE	     
GIBSON		     HARDEMAN		 HAYWOOD	     
HENDERSON	     HENRY		 LAKE		     
LAUDERDALE	     MADISON		 OBION		     
SHELBY		     TIPTON		 WEAKLEY	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.