Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT
LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO INTO FAR NRN OK. THE AIR MASS
HAS RECOVERED FROM MORNING CONVECTION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG. APPARENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY REGION AND ATTENDANT 35-45 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 588 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 162015Z - 170300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30WSW TUL/TULSA OK/ - 25ESE TBN/FORT LEONARD WOOD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /30WSW TUL - 70W FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 36909637 38479170 36749170 35159637
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 588 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 588
VALID 170035Z - 170140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW FYV
TO 25 NNW JLN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC087-143-170140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-170140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-170140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-170140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 588
VALID 162235Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/16/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 588
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-162340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-162340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
217-225-229-162340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DENT
DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY
HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
OREGON OZARK PHELPS
POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
SHANNON STONE TANEY
TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER
WRIGHT
$$
OKC001-021-035-037-041-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-131-
143-145-147-162340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.