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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF PINE
BLUFF ARKANSAS TO 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 587...WW 588...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN A HOT AND MOIST AIR
MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 2500-3500 J/KG. REGION REMAINS
ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BUT...THE PRESENCE OF THE MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A LARGE TSTM
CLUSTER WHICH WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED
NW-SE ACROSS AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...MEAD/WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 589 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 162035Z - 170300Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45S PBF/PINE BLUFF AR/ - 10WNW RKR/POTEAU OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /43ENE ELD - 31SW FSM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 32819237 34369523 35779431 34229147
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 589 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 589
VALID 170240Z - 170300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW ELD
TO 35 SW LLQ.
WW 589 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-139-170300-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE UNION
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 589
VALID 170125Z - 170240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W DEQ TO
25 NNW ELD TO 20 W LLQ TO 20 NNE PBF.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-027-041-043-057-073-079-081-091-099-133-139-170240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY COLUMBIA DESHA
DREW HEMPSTEAD LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
NEVADA SEVIER UNION
$$
OKC089-170240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-387-170240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 589
VALID 170040Z - 170140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-033-039-041-043-047-051-053-057-059-061-
069-071-073-079-081-083-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-
127-131-133-139-149-170140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
SEVIER UNION YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-170140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
TXC037-387-170140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE RED RIVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 589
VALID 162235Z - 162340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 589
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-033-039-041-043-047-051-053-057-059-061-
069-071-073-079-081-083-091-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-119-125-
127-131-133-139-149-162340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAWFORD
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PIKE
POLK POPE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
SEVIER UNION YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-121-127-135-162340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH
$$
TXC037-162340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
