Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF GOLDSBORO NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES EAST OF NEW BERN NORTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...WW 594...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG LEE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD
THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF A HOT...MODERATE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
/MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J PER KG/ AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...MEAD/IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 595 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 171845Z - 180200Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
20WNW GSB/GOLDSBORO NC/ - 55E EWN/NEW BERN NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /30SE RDU - 71S ECG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 36187812 35707590 34437626 34937848
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 595 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 595
VALID 180130Z - 180200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW GSB
TO 30 WNW EWN TO 40 NNW HSE.
WW 595 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 180200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609.
..GRAMS..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC031-049-051-061-095-103-133-137-163-180200-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTERET CRAVEN CUMBERLAND
DUPLIN HYDE JONES
ONSLOW PAMLICO SAMPSON
$$
AMZ135-180200-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 595
VALID 180040Z - 180140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GSB
TO 30 NW EWN TO 40 SW ECG.
..GRAMS..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-095-103-107-133-137-163-177-187-
180140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
HYDE JONES LENOIR
ONSLOW PAMLICO SAMPSON
TYRRELL WASHINGTON
$$
AMZ130-135-180140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 595
VALID 172340Z - 180040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W GSB TO
45 WSW ECG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606.
..GRAMS..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-079-093-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-
163-177-187-191-180040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
GREENE HOKE HYDE
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
ONSLOW PAMLICO PITT
SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
AMZ130-135-180040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 595
VALID 172250Z - 172340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RWI
TO 45 E RWI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606.
..GRAMS..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101-103-107-117-
133-137-147-163-177-187-191-195-172340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LENOIR MARTIN
ONSLOW PAMLICO PITT
SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-172340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 595
VALID 172130Z - 172240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW RWI
TO 35 SE RZZ.
..GRAMS..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101-103-105-107-
117-125-127-133-137-147-163-177-187-191-195-172240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT
HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON
JONES LEE LENOIR
MARTIN MOORE NASH
ONSLOW PAMLICO PITT
SAMPSON TYRRELL WASHINGTON
WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-172240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 595
VALID 172040Z - 172140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-105-
107-117-125-127-133-137-147-163-177-187-191-195-172140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GREENE HALIFAX
HARNETT HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH ONSLOW PAMLICO
PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-172140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 595
VALID 171950Z - 172040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 595
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-031-049-051-055-061-065-079-083-085-093-095-101-103-105-
107-117-125-127-133-137-147-163-177-187-191-195-172040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT CARTERET CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN
EDGECOMBE GREENE HALIFAX
HARNETT HOKE HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LEE
LENOIR MARTIN MOORE
NASH ONSLOW PAMLICO
PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL
WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON
$$
AMZ130-135-172040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE SOUND
PAMLICO SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.