Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 700
PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SCOTTSBLUFF NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIMON COLORADO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...WW
594...WW 595...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN
WY/NRN CO...AND SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN ERN
CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WAS
RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...MUCAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG. THIS
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL...THOUGH STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN ERN CO/WRN NEB MAY
INGEST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 596 TORNADO CO NE WY 171900Z - 180100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW BFF/SCOTTSBLUFF NE/ - 55SE LIC/LIMON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /17WNW BFF - 33NNW LAA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34025.
LAT...LON 42020273 38700193 38700397 42020487
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 596 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 596
VALID 172350Z - 180040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW LIC
TO 20 ESE CYS TO 5 ESE TOR.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-180040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC007-033-105-123-157-180040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 596
VALID 172345Z - 180040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TOR TO 25 SE
CYS TO 30 SW LIC.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-180040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC007-033-105-123-157-180040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 596
VALID 172230Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-172340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE
ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-105-123-157-165-172340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-172340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 596
VALID 172040Z - 172140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
CLEARING THE NRN AND NWRN PARTS OF THE WW MAY BE REQUIRED NEXT
HOUR IF THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS LOW. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
AND DEFER THE TASK OF AREAL CLEARANCE FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
..SMITH..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-172140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE
ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
NEC007-013-033-105-123-157-165-172140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SIOUX
$$
WYC015-021-031-172140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.