Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 592...WW 593...WW
594...WW 595...WW 596...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS IN NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD AND
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARDING PROPAGATING MCS. OTHER STORMS
HAVE ALSO MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NERN NM. STRONGLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THESE DISCRETE STORMS...BUT AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM...WIND DAMAGE WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36025.
...IMY
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 597 SEVERE TSTM KS NM OK TX 172000Z - 180300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NNW GCK/GARDEN CITY KS/ - 55WSW AMA/AMARILLO TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /44NNW GCK - 27NNE TXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36025.
LAT...LON 38599969 34900129 34900394 38590245
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 597 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 597
VALID 180145Z - 180240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW SPD TO
35 E LBL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
..GUYER..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-019-021-037-047-059-180240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY GUADALUPE HARDING
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC007-025-139-180240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-180240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 597
VALID 172345Z - 180040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW GCK
TO 30 WSW GCK TO 30 N LBL TO 25 SSW DDC.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-071-075-093-119-129-175-187-189-203-180040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY MEADE MORTON
SEWARD STANTON STEVENS
WICHITA
$$
NMC009-019-021-037-047-059-180040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY GUADALUPE HARDING
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC007-025-139-180040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-180040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 597
VALID 172230Z - 172340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/17/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-119-129-171-175-187-189-203-
172340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GRANT GRAY
GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL
KEARNY LANE MEADE
MORTON SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS WICHITA
$$
NMC009-019-021-037-047-059-172340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY GUADALUPE HARDING
QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC007-025-139-172340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-087-111-117-129-179-195-205-211-233-295-341-357-359-
375-381-393-421-483-172340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON COLLINGSWORTH
DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY
GRAY HANSFORD HARTLEY
HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB
MOORE OCHILTREE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS
SHERMAN WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (70%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.