Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LARGE PART OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF CANNON AFB
NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 40-50KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG
SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL AND AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO
CLUSTERS...WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE BY THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 601 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 181945Z - 190300Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW LHX/LA JUNTA CO/ - 65S CVS/CANNON AFB NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /34ENE PUB - 65E ROW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.
LAT...LON 38490201 33430166 33430497 38490551
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 601 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 601
VALID 190230Z - 190300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LVS TO
35 S AMA.
A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 601 BY 03Z...OTHERWISE
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF CURRENT WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
19/03Z.
..KERR..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-019-037-041-190300-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE QUAY ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC017-069-369-190300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY CASTRO PARMER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 601
VALID 190130Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ALS TO
20 SSW AMA.
..KERR..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-190240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
TXC017-069-117-359-369-381-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAILEY CASTRO DEAF SMITH
OLDHAM PARMER RANDALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 601
VALID 190030Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ALS TO
EHA.
..KERR..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-190140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-190140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-111-117-205-233-341-359-369-375-381-421-
190140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH
HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 601
VALID 182325Z - 190040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
BUT...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS COLORADO PORTIONS
OF WW...WHICH MAY BE CLEARED EARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614.
..KERR..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-071-089-101-190040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PUEBLO
$$
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-190040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-190040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-111-117-205-233-341-359-369-375-381-421-
190040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH
HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 601
VALID 182245Z - 182340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-055-071-089-101-182340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO HUERFANO
LAS ANIMAS OTERO PUEBLO
$$
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-182340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-182340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-111-117-205-233-341-359-369-375-381-421-
182340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH
HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 601
VALID 182130Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/18/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-041-055-071-089-101-182240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
EL PASO HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PUEBLO
$$
NMC005-007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-182240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-182240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC011-017-065-069-111-117-205-233-341-359-369-375-381-421-
182240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON
CASTRO DALLAM DEAF SMITH
HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.