Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 725 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST OF
LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 601...
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SWD 25 KT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ACCELERATION IF A COLD POOL STRENGTHENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE GUST FRONTS. JAYTON PROFILER SHOWS STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND 50 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6
KM...WHICH WILL PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AID IN
MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 602 SEVERE TSTM TX 190025Z - 190300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
70W LBB/LUBBOCK TX/ - 40SSE CDS/CHILDRESS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /51S TXO - 31SSE CDS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35025.
LAT...LON 34520304 34750001 33020001 32790304
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 602 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 602
VALID 190230Z - 190300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PVW TO
45 NNW BGS.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW COULD BE EXTENDING LOCALLY
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE SOUTH OF WW 602 BY 03Z.
..KERR..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC079-189-219-279-303-305-437-445-501-190300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COCHRAN HALE HOCKLEY
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 602
VALID 190135Z - 190240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 602
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC045-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-279-303-
305-345-433-437-445-501-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FLOYD GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.