Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CANNON AFB NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 603...
DISCUSSION...STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO AND
NERN NM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32035.
...DIAL
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 604 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 191950Z - 200300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NNE LHX/LA JUNTA CO/ - 65WSW CVS/CANNON AFB NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /36NW LAA - 42NNE ROW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32035.
LAT...LON 38630190 34000315 34000558 38630450
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 604 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 604
VALID 200230Z - 200300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SE 4CR TO
20 NNE 4CR TO 55 W CVS TO 5 NNW CAO TO 35 N DHT.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 604 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
20/03Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-011-037-041-200300-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY DE BACA QUAY
ROOSEVELT
$$
TXC111-205-200300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 604
VALID 200125Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE 4CR
TO 30 SW SPD TO 25 SE SPD.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-011-019-021-037-041-047-059-200240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE
HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-200240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-205-200240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 604
VALID 200030Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW LVS
TO 30 SE RTN TO 45 S ITR.
..GRAMS..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-099-200140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA PROWERS
$$
NMC009-011-019-021-037-041-047-059-200140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE
HARDING QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-200140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-205-200140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 604
VALID 192340Z - 200040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW RTN
TO 40 E TAD TO 45 NNW LAA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621.
..GRAMS..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-061-099-200040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT KIOWA
PROWERS
$$
NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-200040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE HARDING MORA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-200040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-205-200040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 604
VALID 192240Z - 192340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-055-061-071-089-099-101-192340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-192340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE HARDING MORA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-192340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-205-192340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 604
VALID 192135Z - 192240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..07/19/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 604
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-055-061-071-089-099-101-192240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
$$
NMC007-009-011-019-021-033-037-041-047-059-192240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX CURRY DE BACA
GUADALUPE HARDING MORA
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-192240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-205-192240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.