Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT FROM 630 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 120 MILES SOUTH OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 603...WW 604...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING IN WAA AREA OVER WRN ND/SD EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVE AS HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS REGION WITH GLANCING ABROACH OF SK UPR TROUGH. NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MERGES INTO ONE OR
TWO SMALL CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 605 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 200030Z - 200600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NW MOT/MINOT ND/ - 120S Y22/LEMMON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /48NW MOT - 38ENE RAP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 48810093 44180105 44180327 48810333
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 605 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 605
VALID 200435Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW PHP
TO 30 E Y22 TO 20 NNW BIS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC037-059-065-085-200540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT MORTON OLIVER
SIOUX
$$
SDC031-041-055-117-137-200540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON DEWEY HAAKON
STANLEY ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 605
VALID 200335Z - 200440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PHP
TO Y22 TO 25 ESE N60.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC037-059-065-085-200440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT MORTON OLIVER
SIOUX
$$
SDC031-041-055-117-137-200440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON DEWEY HAAKON
STANLEY ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 605
VALID 200230Z - 200340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-025-037-041-055-057-059-061-065-075-085-089-101-200340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS DUNN GRANT
HETTINGER MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
RENVILLE SIOUX STARK
WARD
$$
SDC031-041-055-093-105-117-137-200340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORSON DEWEY HAAKON
MEADE PERKINS STANLEY
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 605
VALID 200125Z - 200240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC001-025-037-041-055-057-059-061-065-075-085-089-101-200240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS DUNN GRANT
HETTINGER MCLEAN MERCER
MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER
RENVILLE SIOUX STARK
WARD
$$
SDC019-031-041-055-063-081-093-105-117-137-200240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CORSON DEWEY
HAAKON HARDING LAWRENCE
MEADE PERKINS STANLEY
ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.