Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF CASPER WYOMING TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...DEVELOPING UPSLOPE SPREADING SWD IN HIGH PLAINS WILL
ENHANCE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NWLY
FLOW REGIME. STORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES AND IN
UPSLOPE AREA OF BIG HORNS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THRU THE WATCH AREA.
PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION WHICH WILL ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 606 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 202025Z - 210400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
50NNW CPR/CASPER WY/ - 30SE LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM EITHER SIDE /32SW CZI - 27SE LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32025.
LAT...LON 44630623 41889968 39750084 42500744
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 606 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 606
VALID 210230Z - 210340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE AKO TO
25 SSE AIA TO 25 NNW BBW.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-029-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-111-113-115-117-
135-171-210340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE CHASE
CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER
GARDEN GRANT HAYES
HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 606
VALID 210130Z - 210240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CYS TO
5 ESE TOR TO 35 S ANW.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-210240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-007-009-029-033-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101-105-111-
113-115-117-123-135-157-171-210240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
CHASE CHEYENNE CUSTER
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF
THOMAS
$$
WYC021-210240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 606
VALID 210030Z - 210140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LAR TO
15 SSE DGW TO 35 N MHN.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-210140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-029-031-033-041-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-
101-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-210140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DAWES
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC015-021-031-210140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 606
VALID 202335Z - 210040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CPR
TO 40 SSW RAP.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-210040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-029-031-033-041-045-049-063-069-075-085-091-
101-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-157-161-165-171-210040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DAWES
DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN
GRANT HAYES HOOKER
KEITH KIMBALL LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
MORRILL PERKINS SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC009-015-021-025-027-031-210040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN LARAMIE
NATRONA NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 606
VALID 202225Z - 202340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-202340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-029-031-033-041-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-
087-091-101-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-157-161-165-171-
202340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DAWES
DEUEL DUNDY FRONTIER
GARDEN GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOOKER KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC005-009-015-019-021-025-027-031-202340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA
NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 606
VALID 202135Z - 202240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/20/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS...GLD...UNR...RIW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 606
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC075-095-115-202240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
$$
NEC005-007-009-013-029-031-033-041-045-049-057-063-069-075-085-
087-091-101-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-157-161-165-171-
202240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BLAINE
BOX BUTTE CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DAWES
DEUEL DUNDY FRONTIER
GARDEN GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOOKER KEITH
KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON MORRILL
PERKINS RED WILLOW SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX THOMAS
$$
WYC005-009-015-019-021-025-027-031-202240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CONVERSE GOSHEN
JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA
NIOBRARA PLATTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.