Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF PONCA CITY
OKLAHOMA TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 606...WW 607...WW 608...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL NOW IN EXTREME S CNTRL KS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SSE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM IN ERN OK AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND VEERS INVOF WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IN THAT AREA.
INCREASING CIN WITH NIGHTFALL MAY CAUSE TO STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH TIME...AND NEAR-SFC SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST. BUT
COMBINATION OF EXISTING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...FAVORABLY
ORIENTED BOUNDARIES...MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...AND STRENGTHENING
MID/UPR LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED
STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/WIND AND
ISOLD TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 609 TORNADO OK 210145Z - 210900Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20N PNC/PONCA CITY OK/ - 5S MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /50SSE ICT - 42SSE TUL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34030.
LAT...LON 37009547 35599376 35599697 37009873
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 609 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 609
VALID 210835Z - 210940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW END TO
20 SW PNC TO 15 NW TUL TO 20 WSW GMJ TO 5 ESE GMJ.
THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
SHORTLY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636.
..CARBIN..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 609
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-021-037-041-047-091-097-101-103-107-111-117-119-131-135-
143-145-210940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CREEK
DELAWARE GARFIELD MCINTOSH
MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 609
VALID 210435Z - 210540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 609
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-003-021-035-037-041-047-053-071-091-097-101-103-105-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-210540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA CHEROKEE
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 609
VALID 210330Z - 210440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 609
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-003-021-035-037-041-047-053-071-091-097-101-103-105-111-
113-115-117-119-131-135-143-145-147-210440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ALFALFA CHEROKEE
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKMULGEE
OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.