Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT VICINITY OF RED RIVER
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND LITTLE
REMAINING CINH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
FROM N TO S ACROSS THE WATCH WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 612 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 212015Z - 220400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5NNE MLU/MONROE LA/ - 30WNW GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /4NNE MLU - 24WNW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 31569200 31539519 33569519 33599200
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 612 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 612
VALID 220325Z - 220400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE TYR TO
25 S MLU.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 612 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
22/04Z.
..KERR..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC031-081-127-220400-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
DE SOTO RED RIVER WINN
$$
TXC073-365-401-419-220400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE PANOLA RUSK
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 612
VALID 220230Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE TYR TO
5 NE MLU.
..KERR..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-031-081-127-220340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WINN
$$
TXC073-365-401-419-423-220340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE PANOLA RUSK
SHELBY SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 612
VALID 220130Z - 220240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE TYR
TO 35 N MLU.
..KERR..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-127-220240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
WINN
$$
TXC063-073-183-203-315-365-401-419-423-459-499-220240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP CHEROKEE GREGG
HARRISON MARION PANOLA
RUSK SHELBY SMITH
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 612
VALID 220055Z - 220140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-220140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-127-220140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
WINN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-419-423-449-
459-499-220140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 612
VALID 212350Z - 220040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-220040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-127-220040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
WINN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-419-423-449-
459-499-220040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 612
VALID 212235Z - 212340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-212340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-127-212340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
WINN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-419-423-449-
459-499-212340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 612
VALID 212140Z - 212240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/21/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 612
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC027-073-091-139-212240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE MILLER
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-127-212240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA
RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER
WINN
$$
TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-419-423-449-
459-499-212240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SHELBY SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.