Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF AKRON COLORADO TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH WRN/CNTRL NEB
INTO KS. PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG AND 35-45 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY PROMOTE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 35030.
...MEAD/HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 613 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 221955Z - 230300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35SW AKO/AKRON CO/ - 45SSE EAR/KEARNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /31SW AKO - 77S OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 35030.
LAT...LON 40830369 41139866 39099866 38810369
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 613 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 613
VALID 230045Z - 230140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SNY
TO 45 SE SNY TO 30 NNW MCK TO 30 N EAR.
..BROYLES..07/23/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-087-095-121-123-125-230140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
WASHINGTON WELD YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199-
203-230140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-029-035-047-057-059-061-063-065-073-079-081-083-085-
087-093-099-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-181-185-230140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CHASE
CLAY DAWSON DUNDY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HALL
HAMILTON HARLAN HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY
MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS
PHELPS POLK RED WILLOW
SHERMAN THAYER WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 613
VALID 222350Z - 230040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-230040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199-
203-230040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-029-035-041-047-057-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-
083-085-087-093-099-101-111-121-125-129-135-137-143-145-163-169-
175-181-185-230040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CHASE
CLAY CUSTER DAWSON
DUNDY FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK
HOWARD KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PERKINS PHELPS
POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN
THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 613
VALID 222230Z - 222340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..07/22/09
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 613
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-125-222340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD
YUMA
$$
KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-147-153-163-179-181-183-193-199-
203-222340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN
NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS
ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
SMITH THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC001-019-029-035-041-047-057-061-063-065-073-079-081-083-085-
087-099-101-111-121-129-135-137-145-181-222340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CHASE
CLAY CUSTER DAWSON
DUNDY FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER HALL
HAMILTON HARLAN HAYES
HITCHCOCK KEARNEY KEITH
LINCOLN MERRICK NUCKOLLS
PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW
WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.