Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF WATERLOO
IOWA TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF MADISON WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 616...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 617. WATCH
NUMBER 616 617 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 505 PM CDT.
CONTINUE...WW 618...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE ZONE OF
ASCENT FOCUSED WHERE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A NNW-SSE
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH FAVOR
SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES...ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND
THE FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVE SEWD FROM MN/WI
TOWARD IA/NRN IL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 619 TORNADO IA IL WI 242205Z - 250400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15S ALO/WATERLOO IA/ - 60S MSN/MADISON WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /60NW IOW - 62E DBQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
REPLACES WW 616..IA MN WI
REPLACES WW 617..IA IL WI
LAT...LON 43209240 43138933 41388933 41459240
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 619 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 619
VALID 250235Z - 250340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ALO TO
35 NW MLI TO 40 NE MLI TO 20 SSW RFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
..GUYER..07/25/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-073-103-131-155-161-195-250340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU HENRY LEE
MERCER PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
WHITESIDE
$$
IAC031-095-103-107-115-139-163-183-250340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR IOWA JOHNSON
KEOKUK LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 619
VALID 250125Z - 250240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S ALO TO
10 W RFD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
..GUYER..07/25/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-015-073-085-103-131-141-155-161-177-195-201-250240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CARROLL HENRY
JO DAVIESS LEE MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC011-019-031-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-115-139-163-
183-250240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE
IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 619
VALID 250030Z - 250140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW LSE
TO 45 NW DBQ TO 15 NNE DBQ TO 45 ENE DBQ TO 15 SW JVL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
..GUYER..07/25/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-015-073-085-103-131-141-155-161-177-195-201-250140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CARROLL HENRY
JO DAVIESS LEE MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-095-097-103-105-107-113-
115-139-163-183-191-250140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE
IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON
JONES KEOKUK LINN
LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT
WASHINGTON WINNESHIEK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 619
VALID 242340Z - 250040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..07/24/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 619
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-015-073-085-103-131-141-155-161-177-195-201-250040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CARROLL HENRY
JO DAVIESS LEE MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
$$
IAC005-011-019-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-095-097-103-105-107-
113-115-139-163-183-191-250040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BUCHANAN
CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON
CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE
FAYETTE IOWA JACKSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT WASHINGTON WINNESHIEK
$$
WIC023-043-045-049-065-250040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAWFORD GRANT GREEN
IOWA LAFAYETTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.