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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1255 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 636...WW 637...
DISCUSSION...TWO STRONG/SVR FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCSS...ONE NEARING
KSPS AND THE OTHER E OF KLBB EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE AND
SE...RESPECTIVELY... THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA VWPS SHOW 30+
KT SE AND SLY MOIST LLJS AVAILABLE TO FEED BOTH SYSTEMS...AND DEEP
NNWLY SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH AND FAVORABLY ORIENTED TO SUPPORT
MAINTENANCE OF THE SYSTEMS. BOTH DMGG WET MICROBURSTS AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 29040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 638 SEVERE TSTM TX 300555Z - 301300Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
90W ABI/ABILENE TX/ - 55ENE DAL/DALLAS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /54ENE MAF - 56ENE DFW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
LAT...LON 33270122 34029597 32279597 31540122
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 638 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 638
VALID 301225Z - 301300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CRS
TO 25 E DUA.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 638 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-049-099-119-147-161-213-223-231-257-277-293-309-349-379-
397-467-301300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BROWN CORYELL
DELTA FANNIN FREESTONE
HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR LIMESTONE
MCLENNAN NAVARRO RAINS
ROCKWALL VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 638
VALID 301145Z - 301240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W BWD TO
35 NNW BWD TO 25 SSW DAL TO 15 NNW GYI.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-035-049-085-093-099-113-119-139-147-161-181-213-217-223-
231-251-257-277-293-309-349-379-397-439-467-301240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOSQUE BROWN
COLLIN COMANCHE CORYELL
DALLAS DELTA ELLIS
FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON
HENDERSON HILL HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 638
VALID 301035Z - 301140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BGS TO
20 NE SEP TO 40 SW ADM.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-059-081-083-085-093-097-099-113-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-217-221-231-251-257-309-349-367-397-399-425-431-439-497-
301140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL
DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN MCLENNAN NAVARRO
PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS
SOMERVELL STERLING TARRANT
WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 638
VALID 300935Z - 301040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BGS TO
40 ENE ABI TO 40 SW SPS.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-181-221-
231-237-251-257-337-353-363-367-397-399-425-429-431-439-441-497-
503-301040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN GRAYSON HOOD
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN MONTAGUE NOLAN
PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL
RUNNELS SOMERVELL STEPHENS
STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 638
VALID 300830Z - 300940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BGS
TO 65 WSW SPS.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-151-181-
207-221-231-237-251-253-257-335-337-353-363-367-397-399-415-417-
425-429-431-439-441-447-497-503-300940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON
HASKELL HOOD HUNT
JACK JOHNSON JONES
KAUFMAN MITCHELL MONTAGUE
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 638
VALID 300730Z - 300840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-151-181-
207-221-231-237-251-253-257-335-337-353-363-367-397-399-415-417-
425-429-431-439-441-447-497-503-300840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON
HASKELL HOOD HUNT
JACK JOHNSON JONES
KAUFMAN MITCHELL MONTAGUE
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 638
VALID 300630Z - 300740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-081-083-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-151-181-
207-221-231-237-251-253-257-335-337-353-363-367-397-399-415-417-
425-429-431-439-441-447-497-503-300740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON
HASKELL HOOD HUNT
JACK JOHNSON JONES
KAUFMAN MITCHELL MONTAGUE
NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL RUNNELS SCURRY
SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS
STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
