SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
   900 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD MOTION AND
   OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION MOVING INTO W-CENTRAL MS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE LOW INTO ERN AR/NRN MS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH
   PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...AND ISOLATED TORNADO
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28040.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
   900 PM CDT.
   
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   ISOLATED TORNADOES
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD MOTION AND
   OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION MOVING INTO W-CENTRAL MS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE LOW INTO ERN AR/NRN MS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH
   PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...AND ISOLATED TORNADO
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28040.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   SEL9
   
   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
   900 PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
   JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD MOTION AND
   OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION MOVING INTO W-CENTRAL MS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE NEAR SURFACE LOW INTO ERN AR/NRN MS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH
   PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...AND ISOLATED TORNADO
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF WW NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
   WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28040.
   
   
   ...EVANS

   WOUS64 KWNS 302039
   WOU9
   
   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
   
   ARC107-310200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0639.090730T2045Z-090731T0200Z/
   
   AR 
   .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   PHILLIPS             
   
   
   MSC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-051-057-069-
   071-075-079-081-083-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-115-117-
   119-123-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-155-159-161-310200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0639.090730T2045Z-090731T0200Z/
   
   MS 
   .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   ALCORN               ATTALA              BENTON              
   BOLIVAR              CALHOUN             CARROLL             
   CHICKASAW            CHOCTAW             CLAY                
   COAHOMA              DESOTO              GRENADA             
   HOLMES               ITAWAMBA            KEMPER              
   LAFAYETTE            LAUDERDALE          LEAKE               
   LEE                  LEFLORE             LOWNDES             
   MARSHALL             MONROE              MONTGOMERY          
   NESHOBA              NEWTON              NOXUBEE             
   OKTIBBEHA            PANOLA              PONTOTOC            
   PRENTISS             QUITMAN             SCOTT               
   SUNFLOWER            TALLAHATCHIE        TATE                
   TIPPAH               TISHOMINGO          TUNICA              
   UNION                WEBSTER             WINSTON             
   YALOBUSHA            
   
   
   TNC023-047-069-071-109-310200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0639.090730T2045Z-090731T0200Z/
   
   TN 
   .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
   
   CHESTER              FAYETTE             HARDEMAN            
   HARDIN               MCNAIRY             
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...
   
   
   

   SAW9 
   WW 639 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 302045Z - 310200Z
   AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   20SE JAN/JACKSON MS/ - 50ENE MEM/MEMPHIS TN/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /29SE JAN - 43ENE MEM/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28040.
   
   LAT...LON 32119102 35319040 35318791 32118863
   
   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU9.
   

Watch 639 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 639

VALID 302335Z - 310040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE MEI TO
45 NNW MEI TO 40 E GWO TO 20 N UOX TO 25 W MKL.

..HURLBUT..07/30/09

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 639 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MSC025-069-087-103-105-310040-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLAY		     KEMPER		 LOWNDES	     
NOXUBEE 	     OKTIBBEHA		 
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 639

VALID 302230Z - 302340Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..HURLBUT..07/30/09

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 639 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ARC107-302340-

AR 
.    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

PHILLIPS	     
$$


MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-051-069-075-079-083-087-097-099-101-
103-105-123-133-155-159-302340-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATTALA		     BOLIVAR		 CARROLL	     
CHOCTAW 	     CLAY		 GRENADA	     
HOLMES		     KEMPER		 LAUDERDALE	     
LEAKE		     LEFLORE		 LOWNDES	     
MONTGOMERY	     NESHOBA		 NEWTON 	     
NOXUBEE 	     OKTIBBEHA		 SCOTT		     
SUNFLOWER	     WEBSTER		 WINSTON	     
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.