Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 410 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED VICINITY
MS RIVER AND WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED
AIR MASS. SUPERCELLS INCLUDING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 640 TORNADO AR MS TN 302110Z - 310500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40SSW UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 80NE MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /33NE SQS - 61WNW BNA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 33849101 36408916 36408663 33848858
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 640 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 640
VALID 310240Z - 310340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HSV TO
55 NNW MSL TO 25 WNW HOP.
..HURLBUT..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-021-037-043-055-081-083-101-117-119-125-147-149-165-187-
189-310340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CHEATHAM DAVIDSON
DICKSON GILES HICKMAN
HOUSTON LEWIS MARSHALL
MAURY MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON
RUTHERFORD SUMNER WILLIAMSON
WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 640
VALID 310140Z - 310240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N MSL TO
40 SE MKL TO 35 SE PAH.
..HURLBUT..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-005-021-037-039-043-055-071-077-079-081-083-085-099-101-
117-119-125-135-147-149-161-165-181-187-189-310240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CHEATHAM
DAVIDSON DECATUR DICKSON
GILES HARDIN HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE LEWIS
MARSHALL MAURY MONTGOMERY
PERRY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WAYNE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 640
VALID 310100Z - 310240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MSL TO
20 SSW MKL TO 35 W HOP.
..HURLBUT..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC003-005-017-021-023-037-039-043-055-071-077-079-081-083-085-
099-101-109-117-119-125-135-147-149-161-165-181-187-189-
310240-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CARROLL
CHEATHAM CHESTER DAVIDSON
DECATUR DICKSON GILES
HARDIN HENDERSON HENRY
HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS
LAWRENCE LEWIS MCNAIRY
MARSHALL MAURY MONTGOMERY
PERRY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WAYNE
WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 640
VALID 302335Z - 310040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W GWO TO
15 ENE MEM TO 25 S PAH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
..HURLBUT..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-093-095-115-117-137-139-141-145-
161-310040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MARSHALL MONROE
PONTOTOC PRENTISS TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-047-053-055-069-071-075-
077-079-081-083-085-099-101-109-113-117-119-125-135-147-149-161-
165-181-183-187-189-310040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BENTON CARROLL
CHEATHAM CHESTER CROCKETT
DAVIDSON DECATUR DICKSON
FAYETTE GIBSON GILES
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HENRY HICKMAN
HOUSTON HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE
LEWIS MCNAIRY MADISON
MARSHALL MAURY MONTGOMERY
PERRY ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD
STEWART SUMNER WAYNE
WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 640
VALID 302230Z - 302340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC035-093-302340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRITTENDEN MISSISSIPPI
$$
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
135-137-139-141-143-145-161-302340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA
PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-069-071-075-077-
079-081-083-085-097-099-101-109-113-119-125-131-135-147-157-161-
167-181-183-187-302340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHEATHAM
CHESTER CROCKETT DAVIDSON
DECATUR DICKSON DYER
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HARDIN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEWIS MCNAIRY MADISON
MAURY MONTGOMERY OBION
PERRY ROBERTSON SHELBY
STEWART TIPTON WAYNE
WEAKLEY WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.