Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 639...WW 640...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OF UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW REGIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN NM PLAINS THIS EVENING. A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GREATER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 641 SEVERE TSTM NM 302130Z - 310500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25WNW RTN/RATON NM/ - 30SSW CNM/CARLSBAD NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /22N CIM - 63W INK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32025.
LAT...LON 36840355 31920319 31920573 36840626
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 641 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 641
VALID 310335Z - 310440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ELP TO
25 SSE ROW TO 15 E CVS.
..GOSS..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-015-025-035-041-310440-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY EDDY
LEA OTERO ROOSEVELT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 641
VALID 310235Z - 310340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALM
TO 20 S ROW TO 40 ENE ROW TO 30 E LVS TO 25 SW CAO.
..GOSS..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-015-021-025-035-037-041-047-310340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY EDDY
HARDING LEA OTERO
QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 641
VALID 310130Z - 310240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ALM
TO 40 E 4CR TO 50 SSE LVS TO 30 NW LVS TO 30 NW CAO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731.
..GOSS..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-310240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES CURRY DE BACA
EDDY GUADALUPE HARDING
LEA LINCOLN MORA
OTERO QUAY ROOSEVELT
SAN MIGUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 641
VALID 310030Z - 310140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
057-310140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TORRANCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 641
VALID 302340Z - 310040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
057-310040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TORRANCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 641
VALID 302240Z - 302340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC005-007-009-011-015-019-021-025-027-033-035-037-041-047-049-
057-302340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHAVES COLFAX CURRY
DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE
HARDING LEA LINCOLN
MORA OTERO QUAY
ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL SANTA FE
TORRANCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
