Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF
HARRISBURG PENNSYLVANIA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SARANAC
LAKE NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 637...WW 638...WW
639...WW 640...WW 641...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY OVER
MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS BECOMES MDTLY UNSTABLE. WITH
30-40 KT OF SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASER REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 642 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY PA VT CW 292010Z - 300300Z
AXIS..125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35S CXY/HARRISBURG PA/ - 45NNE SLK/SARANAC LAKE NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 110NM E/W /14NNE EMI - 22NW PLB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 39687919 44957640 44957129 39687448
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 642 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 642
VALID 292335Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
THIS WW MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF WW 638.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638.
..EDWARDS..06/29/08
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BTV...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-300040-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-300040-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-300040-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC
SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION
WARREN
$$
NYC001-005-007-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-
043-047-053-057-061-065-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-119-300040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BRONX BROOME
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER KINGS MADISON
MONTGOMERY NEW YORK ONEIDA
ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM
QUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMOND
ROCKLAND ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-
055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-
099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-300040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS
CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE
CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE
MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA
TIOGA UNION WAYNE
WYOMING YORK
$$
VTC003-025-300040-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
ANZ338-300040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 642
VALID 292240Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..06/29/08
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BTV...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-292340-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-292340-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-292340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC
SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION
WARREN
$$
NYC001-005-007-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-
043-047-053-057-061-065-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-119-292340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BRONX BROOME
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER KINGS MADISON
MONTGOMERY NEW YORK ONEIDA
ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM
QUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMOND
ROCKLAND ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-
055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-
099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-292340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS
CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE
CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE
MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA
TIOGA UNION WAYNE
WYOMING YORK
$$
VTC003-025-292340-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
ANZ338-292340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 642
VALID 292150Z - 292240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..06/29/08
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BTV...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC001-005-292240-
CT
. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD
$$
MAC003-292240-
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
$$
NJC003-005-007-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-292240-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN
ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON
MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH
MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC
SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION
WARREN
$$
NYC001-005-007-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-
043-047-053-057-061-065-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-105-107-109-111-113-115-119-292240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BRONX BROOME
CHEMUNG CHENANGO CLINTON
COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE
DUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLIN
FULTON GREENE HAMILTON
HERKIMER KINGS MADISON
MONTGOMERY NEW YORK ONEIDA
ORANGE OTSEGO PUTNAM
QUEENS RENSSELAER RICHMOND
ROCKLAND ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS
ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTCHESTER
$$
PAC001-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-
055-057-061-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-
099-101-103-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-292240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR BRADFORD BUCKS
CAMBRIA CARBON CENTRE
CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE
MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA
PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA
TIOGA UNION WAYNE
WYOMING YORK
$$
VTC003-025-292240-
VT
. VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNINGTON WINDHAM
$$
ANZ338-292240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEW YORK HARBOR
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.