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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
CENTRAL INTO PART OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 644...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS WW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE IN THE FORM OF
FAST MOVING LINES/CLUSTERS...AND EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 645 SEVERE TSTM MD NC VA CW 311825Z - 010100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNE NHK/PATUXENT RIVER MD/ - 20SE SOP/SOUTHERN PINES NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /38WNW SBY - 54NNE FLO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 38477501 35007788 35008037 38477761
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 645 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 645
VALID 312340Z - 010040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FAY
TO 25 S RDU TO 15 N RDU TO 35 WSW AVC TO 15 ENE AVC TO 35 E RIC
TO 35 SSE NHK TO 20 NNW SBY.
..HURLBUT..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC039-045-047-010040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-041-051-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-101-127-131-
139-143-163-181-183-185-191-195-010040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES
GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD
JOHNSTON NASH NORTHAMPTON
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS SAMPSON
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-073-081-093-095-115-131-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-
700-710-735-740-800-810-830-010040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY MATHEWS
NORTHAMPTON SOUTHAMPTON SURRY
SUSSEX YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE EMPORIA FRANKLIN
HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-650-652-654-656-658-010040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 645
VALID 312235Z - 312340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N FLO TO
25 NE SOP TO 30 NW RDU TO 25 SE DAN TO 5 SE AVC TO 35 SSW RIC TO
20 SSE RIC TO 35 SSE NHK TO 20 NNW SBY.
..HURLBUT..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC039-045-047-312340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-041-051-053-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-083-085-091-
101-105-107-117-127-131-139-143-147-163-181-183-185-191-195-
312340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT
SAMPSON VANCE WAKE
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-057-073-081-093-095-115-131-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-
650-700-710-735-740-800-810-830-312340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK ESSEX GLOUCESTER
GREENSVILLE ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY
MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE EMPORIA FRANKLIN
HAMPTON NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH SUFFOLK
VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-650-652-654-656-658-312340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 645
VALID 312100Z - 312240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW SOP TO
20 SW RDU TO 30 NW RDU TO 15 WSW AVC TO 15 WSW RIC TO 30 E CHO.
..DDD..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC019-039-045-047-312240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-041-051-053-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-083-085-091-
093-101-107-117-127-131-135-139-143-147-163-165-181-183-185-191-
195-312240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN
CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD
HOKE JOHNSTON LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PITT SAMPSON SCOTLAND
VANCE WAKE WARREN
WAYNE WILSON
$$
VAC001-025-033-036-041-053-057-073-081-085-087-093-095-097-101-
103-115-119-127-131-133-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-
620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-312240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK BRUNSWICK CAROLINE
CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE
ESSEX GLOUCESTER GREENSVILLE
HANOVER HENRICO ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM
LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-650-652-654-656-658-312240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 645
VALID 312000Z - 312140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE CLT
TO 30 E DAN TO 35 E LYH.
..SPC..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC019-039-045-047-312140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DORCHESTER SOMERSET WICOMICO
WORCESTER
$$
NCC015-029-037-041-051-053-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-083-085-
091-093-101-105-107-117-125-127-131-135-139-143-145-147-153-163-
165-181-183-185-191-195-312140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHATHAM
CHOWAN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK
DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE
FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE
GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT
HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON
LEE LENOIR MARTIN
MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON
ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS
PERSON PITT RICHMOND
SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE
WAKE WARREN WAYNE
WILSON
$$
VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-
093-095-097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-149-
159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-
740-760-800-810-830-312140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ACCOMACK AMELIA BRUNSWICK
CAROLINE CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD
CUMBERLAND DINWIDDIE ESSEX
FLUVANNA GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND
GREENSVILLE HANOVER HENRICO
ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN
KING WILLIAM LANCASTER LOUISA
LUNENBURG MATHEWS MECKLENBURG
MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY POWHATAN
PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY SUSSEX WESTMORELAND
YORK
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS EMPORIA
FRANKLIN HAMPTON HOPEWELL
NEWPORT NEWS NORFOLK PETERSBURG
POQUOSON PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND
SUFFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG
$$
ANZ630-631-632-633-650-652-654-656-658-312140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA
CURRITUCK SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.