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SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 644...WW 645...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OVER HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND 30-35 KT OF SHEAR SUPPORT GENERATION OF COLD POOLS AND
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE ACROSS
WATCH
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 646 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 312220Z - 010500Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NNW GCK/GARDEN CITY KS/ - 20SSE TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /30SE GLD - 17SSE TCC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 38999980 34900205 34900487 38990277
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 646 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 646
VALID 010435Z - 010540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LVS TO
30 NW AMA TO 30 N BGD AND 40 WSW TCC TO 50 WSW AMA TO 10 NNW AMA.
..GOSS..08/01/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-010540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER
$$
TXC011-065-117-233-375-381-010540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
HUTCHINSON POTTER RANDALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 646
VALID 010340Z - 010440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LVS TO
30 NW AMA TO 30 N BGD.
..GOSS..08/01/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC069-083-135-195-010440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRAY HODGEMAN NESS
TREGO
$$
NMC037-010440-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
QUAY
$$
OKC007-010440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER
$$
TXC011-065-117-195-233-341-359-375-381-010440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
HANSFORD HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 646
VALID 010250Z - 010340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE LVS TO
15 ESE DHT TO 15 E GUY TO 20 NNE LBL TO 55 ESE GLD.
..GOSS..08/01/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC055-063-069-081-083-101-135-175-195-010340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRAY
HASKELL HODGEMAN LANE
NESS SEWARD TREGO
$$
NMC037-010340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
QUAY
$$
OKC007-139-010340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-010340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 646
VALID 010130Z - 010240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LVS
TO 25 SSW EHA TO 15 N EHA TO 40 SW ITR.
..GOSS..08/01/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-061-099-010240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIOWA PROWERS
$$
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-129-135-171-175-
187-189-195-199-203-010240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
LANE LOGAN MORTON
NESS SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NMC021-037-010240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING QUAY
$$
OKC139-010240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC111-195-205-341-359-421-010240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 646
VALID 010035Z - 010140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE LVS
TO 30 SSW SPD TO 15 N SPD TO 10 ESE LHX.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741.
..GOSS..08/01/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-089-099-010140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA OTERO PROWERS
$$
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-129-135-171-175-
187-189-195-199-203-010140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
LANE LOGAN MORTON
NESS SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NMC021-037-059-010140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING QUAY UNION
$$
OKC025-139-010140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC111-195-205-341-359-421-010140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 646
VALID 312345Z - 010040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-061-089-099-010040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
KIOWA OTERO PROWERS
$$
KSC055-063-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109-129-135-171-175-
187-189-195-199-203-010040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FINNEY GOVE GRANT
GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON
HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY
LANE LOGAN MORTON
NESS SCOTT SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS TREGO
WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NMC021-037-059-010040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDING QUAY UNION
$$
OKC025-139-010040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC111-195-205-341-359-421-010040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HANSFORD HARTLEY
MOORE OLDHAM SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
