Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 840 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648...WW 649...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY IN
ADVANCE OF FAST MOVING S/W TROUGH DAKOTAS. WITH NOW A MDTLY
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED AIR MASS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 650 SEVERE TSTM IA MN SD 030140Z - 030800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20WNW FSD/SIOUX FALLS SD/ - 25ESE MSP/MINNEAPOLIS MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /14W FSD - 22ESE MSP/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 44569709 45619275 43869275 42819709
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 650 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 650
VALID 030540Z - 030640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE YKN
TO 20 SW FRM TO 30 W MSP TO 30 NE MSP.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC021-035-041-093-141-149-193-030640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
IDA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH
WOODBURY
$$
MNC013-019-037-043-047-049-053-079-123-131-139-147-161-163-
030640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLUE EARTH CARVER DAKOTA
FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN LE SUEUR RAMSEY
RICE SCOTT STEELE
WASECA WASHINGTON
$$
NEC043-051-030640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DAKOTA DIXON
$$
SDC127-030640-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
WIC017-033-035-091-093-109-030640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE
PEPIN PIERCE ST. CROIX
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 650
VALID 030425Z - 030540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE YKN TO
25 NNE OTG TO 30 E STC.
ADDITOONAL WW REQUIRED FARTHER E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759.
..EDWARDS..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC041-059-119-141-143-167-030540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY DICKINSON LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX
$$
MNC003-013-015-019-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-079-085-091-101-
103-105-123-131-139-143-147-161-163-165-171-030540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER COTTONWOOD DAKOTA
FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE
HENNEPIN JACKSON LE SUEUR
MCLEOD MARTIN MURRAY
NICOLLET NOBLES RAMSEY
RICE SCOTT SIBLEY
STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON
WATONWAN WRIGHT
$$
SDC083-030540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LINCOLN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 650
VALID 030225Z - 030340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC041-059-119-141-143-167-030340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY DICKINSON LYON
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX
$$
MNC003-013-015-019-023-033-037-043-047-049-053-063-067-073-079-
081-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-117-123-127-129-131-133-139-141-
143-147-161-163-165-171-173-030340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD
DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN
GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON
KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR
LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD
MARTIN MEEKER MURRAY
NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE ROCK SCOTT
SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE
WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN
WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
$$
SDC011-079-083-087-099-101-125-030340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKINGS LAKE LINCOLN
MCCOOK MINNEHAHA MOODY
TURNER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.