Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM UNTIL
600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MOSINEE WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF SPENCER IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649...WW 650...
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NWRN IA INTO SRN MN IN STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ADVECTION
AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH FROM THE W. AT LEAST AN ELEVATED LARGE HAIL
CONCERN WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 651 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 030440Z - 031100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40SE CWA/MOSINEE WI/ - 25S SPW/SPENCER IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /41WSW GRB - 40WNW FOD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 43508909 41939515 43689515 45248909
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 651 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 651
VALID 031040Z - 031100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE DNS TO
35 E DNS TO 20 WSW LNR TO 30 NW LNR TO 30 WNW OSH.
WW 651 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 031100Z.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC049-153-031100-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAS POLK
$$
WIC001-021-043-047-049-065-077-103-111-031100-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE
MARQUETTE RICHLAND SAUK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 651
VALID 030930Z - 031040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE DNS TO
35 SSW FOD TO 25 WSW LNR TO 15 ENE LSE TO 35 NE VOK TO 25 W OSH.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-015-027-047-049-073-077-099-153-169-031040-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD DALLAS GREENE
GUTHRIE JASPER POLK
STORY
$$
WIC001-021-043-047-049-057-065-077-081-103-111-123-031040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU
LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MONROE
RICHLAND SAUK VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 651
VALID 030835Z - 030940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SLB
TO 25 S FOD TO 25 WSW LNR TO 20 NE LSE TO 25 NE LSE TO 40 NW OSH.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-015-027-047-049-073-077-099-127-153-157-169-171-030940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CRAWFORD DALLAS GREENE
GUTHRIE JASPER MARSHALL
POLK POWESHIEK STORY
TAMA
$$
WIC001-021-043-047-049-057-065-077-081-103-111-123-137-030940-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA JUNEAU
LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE MONROE
RICHLAND SAUK VERNON
WAUSHARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 651
VALID 030810Z - 030940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ENE SLB TO
25 SE FOD TO 45 WSW LNR TO 10 NW LSE TO 40 NNE RST.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC009-013-015-025-027-047-049-073-075-077-083-099-127-153-157-
161-169-171-030940-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE
CALHOUN CARROLL CRAWFORD
DALLAS GREENE GRUNDY
GUTHRIE HARDIN JASPER
MARSHALL POLK POWESHIEK
SAC STORY TAMA
$$
WIC001-011-019-021-023-043-047-049-053-057-063-065-073-077-081-
097-103-111-119-121-123-137-141-030940-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLARK
COLUMBIA CRAWFORD GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON
JUNEAU LA CROSSE LAFAYETTE
MARATHON MARQUETTE MONROE
PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK
TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU VERNON
WAUSHARA WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 651
VALID 030540Z - 030640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..08/03/09
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 651
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-017-023-025-027-033-037-043-047-063-065-067-069-079-081-
083-089-091-109-131-147-151-161-187-189-191-195-197-030640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BREMER BUTLER
CALHOUN CARROLL CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLAYTON CRAWFORD
EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN HAMILTON HANCOCK
HARDIN HOWARD HUMBOLDT
KOSSUTH MITCHELL PALO ALTO
POCAHONTAS SAC WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT
$$
MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-030640-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON
MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA
WINONA
$$
WIC001-011-019-021-023-043-047-049-053-057-063-065-073-077-081-
097-103-111-119-121-123-137-141-030640-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CLARK
COLUMBIA CRAWFORD GRANT
GREEN LAKE IOWA JACKSON
JUNEAU LA CROSSE LAFAYETTE
MARATHON MARQUETTE MONROE
PORTAGE RICHLAND SAUK
TAYLOR TREMPEALEAU VERNON
WAUSHARA WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.