Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
OF MULLEN NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES EAST OF MITCHELL SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COOL FRONT DROPPING SEWD THRU SD. WITH 40-45 KT OF
SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
EWD EXTENT...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH
INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE
SEWD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 652 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 040105Z - 040800Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
50SSE MHN/MULLEN NE/ - 35E MHE/MITCHELL SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /15N LBF - 25WNW FSD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035.
LAT...LON 42270152 44659819 42869648 40479988
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 652 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 652
VALID 040745Z - 040800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EAR
TO 20 E BBW TO 35 N GRI.
WW 652 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040800Z.
..DIAL..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...GID...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC093-125-040800-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD NANCE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 652
VALID 040635Z - 040740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE LBF
TO 30 E MHN TO 30 NNW MHN TO 20 SW 9V9 TO 20 SSW MHE TO 30 WNW
SUX.
..DIAL..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...GID...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-041-071-077-089-093-103-107-113-
115-119-125-139-141-149-163-171-175-179-183-040740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN CEDAR
CHERRY CUSTER GARFIELD
GREELEY HOLT HOWARD
KEYA PAHA KNOX LOGAN
LOUP MADISON NANCE
PIERCE PLATTE ROCK
SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY
WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC009-023-043-053-040740-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BON HOMME CHARLES MIX DOUGLAS
GREGORY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 652
VALID 040430Z - 040540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HON
TO 20 E HON.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765.
..EDWARDS..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...GID...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-041-051-071-077-089-091-093-103-
107-111-113-115-117-119-125-139-141-149-163-171-175-179-183-
040540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN CEDAR
CHERRY CUSTER DIXON
GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT
HOOKER HOWARD KEYA PAHA
KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON MADISON
NANCE PIERCE PLATTE
ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS
VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-009-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-087-097-111-
125-127-135-040540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD
MCCOOK MINER SANBORN
TURNER UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 652
VALID 040350Z - 040440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765.
..EDWARDS..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...GID...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-041-051-071-077-089-091-093-103-
107-111-113-115-117-119-125-139-141-149-163-171-175-179-183-
040440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN CEDAR
CHERRY CUSTER DIXON
GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT
HOOKER HOWARD KEYA PAHA
KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON MADISON
NANCE PIERCE PLATTE
ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS
VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-009-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-087-097-111-
125-127-135-040440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE CHARLES MIX CLAY
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HANSON HUTCHINSON JERAULD
MCCOOK MINER SANBORN
TURNER UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 652
VALID 040240Z - 040340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..EDWARDS..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...FSD...GID...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-041-051-071-077-089-091-093-103-
107-113-115-119-125-139-141-149-163-171-175-179-183-040340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE
BOYD BROWN CEDAR
CHERRY CUSTER DIXON
GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT
HOOKER HOWARD KEYA PAHA
KNOX LOGAN LOUP
MADISON NANCE PIERCE
PLATTE ROCK SHERMAN
THOMAS VALLEY WAYNE
WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-009-015-017-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-085-087-
097-111-125-127-135-040340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
CLAY DAVISON DOUGLAS
GREGORY HANSON HUTCHINSON
JERAULD LYMAN MCCOOK
MINER SANBORN TURNER
UNION YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.