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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 410 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF QUINCY
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 653...
DISCUSSION...A GROWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW MO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND ACCELERATE EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS NRN MO...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF 3000-4000
J/KG.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 654 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO 040910Z - 041500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
5N STJ/SAINT JOSEPH MO/ - 45ESE UIN/QUINCY IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /37NNW MKC - 41ESE UIN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 40709491 40569041 38839041 38979491
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 654 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 654
VALID 041330Z - 041440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MKC
TO 30 NE MKC TO 30 NNW COU TO 20 WNW COU.
..KERR..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC089-107-195-041440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LAFAYETTE SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 654
VALID 041245Z - 041340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MKC TO
30 NE MKC TO 30 NNW COU TO 10 N COU TO 50 E COU TO 40 SE UIN TO
25 ENE UIN TO 10 SW BRL TO 35 ESE OTM.
..DIAL..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC013-061-083-109-041340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MCDONOUGH
$$
MOC089-107-113-183-189-195-219-510-041340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LAFAYETTE LINCOLN
ST. CHARLES ST. LOUIS SALINE
WARREN
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 654
VALID 041130Z - 041240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LWD
TO 30 SSW LWD TO 25 NE MKC TO 35 SSE CDJ TO 35 NNW COU TO 10 E
IRK TO 30 SSW OXV.
..DIAL..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-061-067-083-109-149-041240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY
MCDONOUGH PIKE
$$
IAC007-051-111-173-177-041240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS LEE
TAYLOR VAN BUREN
$$
MOC007-019-021-027-033-045-049-063-075-089-103-107-111-113-127-
137-139-163-173-177-183-189-195-197-199-205-219-227-510-
041240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE BUCHANAN
CALLAWAY CARROLL CLARK
CLINTON DEKALB GENTRY
HOWARD KNOX LAFAYETTE
LEWIS LINCOLN MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE
RALLS RAY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SALINE SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY WARREN
WORTH
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 654
VALID 041035Z - 041140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..08/04/09
ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 654
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC001-009-013-061-067-083-109-149-041140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY
MCDONOUGH PIKE
$$
IAC007-051-053-111-159-173-177-185-041140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
LEE RINGGOLD TAYLOR
VAN BUREN WAYNE
$$
MOC001-007-019-021-025-027-033-041-045-049-061-063-075-079-081-
089-103-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-129-137-139-163-171-173-175-
177-183-189-195-197-199-205-211-219-227-510-041140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CALLAWAY
CARROLL CHARITON CLARK
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOWARD KNOX LAFAYETTE
LEWIS LINCOLN LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MARION
MERCER MONROE MONTGOMERY
PIKE PUTNAM RALLS
RANDOLPH RAY ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS SALINE SCHUYLER
SCOTLAND SHELBY SULLIVAN
WARREN WORTH
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
