Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 620 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF OLATHE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 653...WW 654...
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/STORM INTERACTIONS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING
SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS NE KS/NW MO THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A SMALL
MCS AS A RESULT OF STORM MERGERS LATER THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AS WELL
AS SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32020.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 655 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 022320Z - 030500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NE FNB/FALLS CITY NE/ - 50S OJC/OLATHE KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /41E PWE - 14SW BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32020.
LAT...LON 40279419 38119362 38119583 40279647
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 655 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 655
VALID 030435Z - 030500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE EMP
TO 30 NNW SZL.
WW 655 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030500Z.
..EVANS..07/03/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-059-091-107-121-139-030500-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY FRANKLIN
JOHNSON LINN MIAMI
OSAGE
$$
MOC013-037-083-095-101-107-030500-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CASS HENRY
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 655
VALID 030340Z - 030440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE EMP
TO 15 W MKC TO 10 SW CDJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
..EVANS..07/03/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-031-045-059-091-107-121-139-209-030440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JOHNSON LINN
MIAMI OSAGE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC013-037-047-083-095-101-107-177-030440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BATES CASS CLAY
HENRY JACKSON JOHNSON
LAFAYETTE RAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 655
VALID 030150Z - 030240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MHK TO
20 SE FNB TO 35 N STJ TO 10 WSW LWD.
..EVANS..07/03/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-031-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-107-121-139-149-177-
197-209-030240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON COFFEY
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-013-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-083-095-101-107-
165-177-030240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW BATES BUCHANAN
CALDWELL CASS CLAY
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY HARRISON HENRY
JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
PLATTE RAY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 655
VALID 030040Z - 030140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEVIT..07/03/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 655
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC003-005-013-031-043-045-059-085-087-091-103-107-117-121-131-
139-149-177-197-209-030140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN
COFFEY DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN
MARSHALL MIAMI NEMAHA
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC003-005-013-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-083-087-095-
101-107-147-165-177-227-030140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON BATES
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CASS
CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY HARRISON
HENRY HOLT JACKSON
JOHNSON LAFAYETTE NODAWAY
PLATTE RAY WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.