Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CUT BANK MONTANA TO 40 MILES WEST OF DILLON MONTANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SWRN MT...AND WILL DESTABILIZE AND BECOME
WEAKLY CAPPED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LEMHI COUNTY IDAHO
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CUT BANK MONTANA TO 40 MILES WEST OF DILLON MONTANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SWRN MT...AND WILL DESTABILIZE AND BECOME
WEAKLY CAPPED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 656 SEVERE TSTM ID MT 042005Z - 050400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE CTB/CUT BANK MT/ - 40W DLN/DILLON MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /55SE YQL - 33ENE LKT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 48901015 45241173 45241501 48901366
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 656 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 656
VALID 050345Z - 050400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW BZN TO
25 NE SMN TO 30 S 3DU TO 30 NW GTF TO 60 ENE CTB.
WW 656 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050400Z.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC001-007-013-015-023-041-043-049-051-057-077-093-050400-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE HILL
JEFFERSON LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY
MADISON POWELL SILVER BOW
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 656
VALID 050245Z - 050340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE SMN TO
25 NNE 3DU TO 25 NNE CTB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-050340-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
$$
MTC001-007-013-015-023-041-043-049-051-057-073-077-093-099-101-
050340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE HILL
JEFFERSON LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY
MADISON PONDERA POWELL
SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 656
VALID 050145Z - 050240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE P69
TO 50 N SMN TO 35 NE MSO TO 50 ESE GPI TO 50 NE GPI.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-050240-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
$$
MTC001-007-013-015-023-035-039-041-043-049-051-057-073-077-093-
099-101-050240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE GLACIER
GRANITE HILL JEFFERSON
LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MADISON
PONDERA POWELL SILVER BOW
TETON TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 656
VALID 050040Z - 050140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
..SMITH..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-050140-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
$$
MTC001-007-013-015-023-029-035-039-041-043-047-049-051-057-063-
073-077-081-093-099-101-050140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FLATHEAD
GLACIER GRANITE HILL
JEFFERSON LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK
LIBERTY MADISON MISSOULA
PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI
SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 656
VALID 042350Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
..SMITH..07/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-050040-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
$$
MTC001-007-013-015-023-029-035-039-041-043-047-049-051-057-063-
073-077-081-093-099-101-050040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FLATHEAD
GLACIER GRANITE HILL
JEFFERSON LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK
LIBERTY MADISON MISSOULA
PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI
SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 656
VALID 042225Z - 042340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/04/08
ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 656
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IDC059-042340-
ID
. IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEMHI
$$
MTC001-007-013-015-023-029-035-039-041-043-047-049-051-057-063-
073-077-081-093-099-101-042340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE
CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FLATHEAD
GLACIER GRANITE HILL
JEFFERSON LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK
LIBERTY MADISON MISSOULA
PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI
SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.