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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF
LIVINGSTON MONTANA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HAVRE MONTANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 656...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SWRN MT...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD NEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CAP AND IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASING THIS
EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES MAY EVOLVE AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THREATS OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 657 SEVERE TSTM MT 042105Z - 050400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45S LVM/LIVINGSTON MT/ - 65ENE HVR/HAVRE MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /87N JAC - 57ENE HVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 45041168 48880976 48880712 45040922
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 657 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 657
VALID 050340Z - 050400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW GGW
TO 40 NNW LWT TO 15 WNW LVM TO 35 SW BZN.
WW 657 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050400Z.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-031-033-045-055-059-071-105-050400-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE GALLATIN GARFIELD
JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MEAGHER
PHILLIPS VALLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 657
VALID 050250Z - 050340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE LWT
TO 25 NW 3HT TO 25 N WEY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-031-033-045-055-059-069-071-105-050340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS GALLATIN
GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE
MEAGHER PETROLEUM PHILLIPS
VALLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 657
VALID 050145Z - 050240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE LWT
TO 25 SSE LWT TO 55 SSE LVM.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-031-033-045-055-059-067-069-071-097-105-107-050240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS GALLATIN
GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE
MEAGHER PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS SWEET GRASS VALLEY
WHEATLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 657
VALID 050055Z - 050140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BIL TO
25 SSE LWT TO 55 SSE LVM.
..SMITH..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-031-033-045-055-059-065-067-069-071-097-105-107-
050140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS GALLATIN
GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE
MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK
PETROLEUM PHILLIPS SWEET GRASS
VALLEY WHEATLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 657
VALID 042355Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
..SMITH..07/04/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-031-037-045-059-065-067-069-071-095-097-107-050040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS GALLATIN
GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MEAGHER
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
WHEATLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 657
VALID 042225Z - 042340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..07/04/08
ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC005-027-031-037-045-059-065-067-069-071-095-097-107-042340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE FERGUS GALLATIN
GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MEAGHER
MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM
PHILLIPS STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
WHEATLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
