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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 510 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF HALLOCK
MINNESOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 658...
DISCUSSION...THE FIRST SURFACE-BASED STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN ERN ND
IN ADVANCE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH UPPER 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN
STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP
TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM THIS EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM
ND TO NW MN. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THIS EVENING WITH THE DISCRETE
INITIAL STORMS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. STORMS COULD ALSO EVOLVE
INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER OR LINE SEGMENTS LATER WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 659 TORNADO MN ND 052210Z - 060500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NW HCO/HALLOCK MN/ - 75SSE JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /57S YWG - 33NNE ABR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 48939559 45909651 45909963 48939890
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 659 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 659
VALID 060440Z - 060500Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE TVF
TO 30 SW TVF TO 30 ENE HCO.
WW 659 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060500Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694.
..PETERS..07/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC089-113-119-125-135-060500-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MARSHALL PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 659
VALID 060335Z - 060440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE TVF
TO 10 SE GFK TO 20 NNW HCO.
..PETERS..07/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC069-089-113-119-125-135-060440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KITTSON MARSHALL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 659
VALID 060235Z - 060340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S TVF TO
10 SW GFK TO 20 NW HCO.
..PETERS..07/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC069-089-113-119-125-135-060340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KITTSON MARSHALL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 659
VALID 060135Z - 060240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW DVL
TO 30 ENE DVL TO 50 WNW HCO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693.
..PETERS..07/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-060240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU WILKIN
$$
NDC003-017-019-021-027-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-073-077-
081-091-093-097-099-060240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY FOSTER
GRAND FORKS GRIGGS LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH NELSON
PEMBINA RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT STEELE STUTSMAN
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 659
VALID 060025Z - 060140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/06/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-060140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU WILKIN
$$
NDC003-005-017-019-021-027-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-071-
073-077-081-091-093-097-099-060140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY
FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL
WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 659
VALID 052330Z - 060040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..07/05/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 659
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-069-089-107-113-119-125-135-167-060040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY KITTSON MARSHALL
NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE ROSEAU WILKIN
$$
NDC003-005-017-019-021-027-031-035-039-045-047-051-063-067-071-
073-077-081-091-093-097-099-060040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY
FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS
LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH
NELSON PEMBINA RAMSEY
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL
WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.