Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 660...WW 661...
DISCUSSION...THE INTERACTION OF MERGING OUTFLOWS AND A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS SRN NEB WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED
BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SW AND WARM
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LLJ IN KS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORM/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24015.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 662 SEVERE TSTM NE 070150Z - 070800Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
25WNW IML/IMPERIAL NE/ - GRI/GRAND ISLAND NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /49ESE SNY - 25S OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24015.
LAT...LON 41310205 41619831 40319831 40000205
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 662 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 662
VALID 070450Z - 070540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N GRI TO
30 W LBF TO 55 WNW LBF.
..SPC..07/07/08
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC041-077-093-111-113-117-163-175-070540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD
LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON
SHERMAN VALLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 662
VALID 070420Z - 070540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MCK TO
25 SW LBF TO 50 ENE SNY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
..SPC..07/07/08
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-019-041-047-061-063-065-073-077-079-083-093-099-101-111-
113-117-137-163-175-181-070540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO CUSTER
DAWSON FRANKLIN FRONTIER
FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HARLAN HOWARD
KEARNEY KEITH LINCOLN
LOGAN MCPHERSON PHELPS
SHERMAN VALLEY WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.