Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 400 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF VALENTINE NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 660...WW 661...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE MCS OVER SWRN SD WILL CONTINUE AND TURN MORE
SEWD ALONG AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL NEB. CONTINUED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40
KT AND MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SEVERE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 662 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 050330Z - 051000Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
60WNW VTN/VALENTINE NE/ - 15S BBW/BROKEN BOW NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /76SE RAP - 50E LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31030.
LAT...LON 43900069 41959869 40470054 42430258
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 662 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 662
VALID 050750Z - 050840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW LBF
TO 35 SE MHN TO 25 NNW BBW TO 20 SW ONL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-041-101-111-113-115-117-050840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE CUSTER KEITH
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 662
VALID 050635Z - 050740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE AIA
TO 25 ENE MHN TO ANW TO 25 NE ANW.
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
050740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CUSTER GRANT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
ROCK THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 662
VALID 050535Z - 050640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE AIA
TO VTN TO 40 NE VTN.
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
050640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 662
VALID 050445Z - 050540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E CDR TO
40 WNW VTN TO 40 NW VTN TO 35 SE PHP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782.
..EDWARDS..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 662
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-
050540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA
LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
$$
SDC095-121-050540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MELLETTE TODD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.