Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 660...WW 662...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO A
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO NRN MS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 663 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 050415Z - 050800Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NE ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/ - 35SW TUP/TUPELO MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /45NE ARG - 43NW IGB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33035.
LAT...LON 36638920 33908816 33909025 36639137
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 663 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 663
VALID 050745Z - 050800Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W ARG TO
35 WSW DYR TO 35 SW TUP.
WW 663 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050800Z.
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC031-035-037-075-077-093-111-123-050800-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
LAWRENCE LEE MISSISSIPPI
POINSETT ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC033-071-107-119-137-143-050800-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO LAFAYETTE PANOLA
QUITMAN TATE TUNICA
$$
TNC157-167-050800-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 663
VALID 050635Z - 050740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ARG TO
20 SSE POF TO 35 NNE MEM TO 25 S MKL TO 25 NNE TUP TO 25 ENE TUP.
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-111-121-123-050740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC009-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-119-137-139-143-145-050740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON DESOTO ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL
PANOLA PONTOTOC QUITMAN
TATE TIPPAH TUNICA
UNION
$$
TNC047-069-157-167-050740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE HARDEMAN SHELBY
TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 663
VALID 050540Z - 050640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE POF
TO 10 SW DYR TO 10 SE MKL.
..DIAL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 663
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-111-121-123-050640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS GREENE LAWRENCE
LEE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
$$
MSC003-009-033-057-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-137-139-141-143-
145-050640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON DESOTO
ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE
MARSHALL PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN TATE
TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA
UNION
$$
TNC047-069-071-075-097-109-157-167-050640-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FAYETTE HARDEMAN HARDIN
HAYWOOD LAUDERDALE MCNAIRY
SHELBY TIPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.