Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 80 MILES EAST OF DALLAS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL/ERN OK
HAVE BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SWD INTO A HOT AND
MOIST SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 100F
AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. THE STORMS APPEAR TO
HAVE DEVELOPED AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SWD/SSWWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NRN TX DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP WWD
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WITH RESULTANT SWWD PROPAGATION TO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34020.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 664 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 052025Z - 060300Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60NNW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ - 80E DAL/DALLAS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /46SW ADM - 44NW GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34020.
LAT...LON 34569776 33779547 31899547 32689776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 664 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 664
VALID 060030Z - 060140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SPS TO
40 WSW GYI TO 25 SSW FTW.
..JEWELL..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-077-237-337-363-367-429-497-503-060140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY JACK
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
STEPHENS WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 664
VALID 052350Z - 060040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE FSI
TO 40 WSW ADM TO 20 W GYI TO 5 S GYI TO 30 NNW CRS.
..JEWELL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC067-060040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON
$$
TXC009-077-097-113-121-181-237-337-363-367-429-439-497-503-
060040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER CLAY COOKE
DALLAS DENTON GRAYSON
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER STEPHENS TARRANT
WISE YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 664
VALID 052135Z - 052240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC013-019-067-085-095-052240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CARTER JEFFERSON
LOVE MARSHALL
$$
TXC085-097-113-119-121-147-181-223-231-257-277-337-367-379-397-
439-467-497-052240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON FANNIN
GRAYSON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MONTAGUE
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.