Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 663...
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ESEWD ACROSS ND WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS EVENING AS AIR MASS
BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...INCREASING THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 664 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 072025Z - 080200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50NE DVL/DEVILS LAKE ND/ - 70S JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /56NW GFK - 33NNW ABR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 48619606 45909669 45900066 48610023
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 664 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 664
VALID 080130Z - 080200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW VVV
TO 25 SE FAR.
WW 664 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 080200Z.
..CROSBIE..07/08/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC051-111-167-080200-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT OTTER TAIL WILKIN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 664
VALID 080035Z - 080140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ABR TO
10 SW FAR TO 20 SE FAR.
..SMITH..07/08/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC051-111-167-080140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT OTTER TAIL WILKIN
$$
NDC077-080140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 664
VALID 072335Z - 080040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW ABR TO
30 WNW FAR TO 20 SE FAR.
..SMITH..07/07/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC051-111-167-080040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT OTTER TAIL WILKIN
$$
NDC021-073-077-081-080040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKEY RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 664
VALID 072245Z - 072340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MBG TO
35 NE JMS TO 20 SE FAR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
..SMITH..07/07/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC051-111-167-072340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT OTTER TAIL WILKIN
$$
NDC003-021-045-047-051-073-077-081-072340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES DICKEY LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 664
VALID 072145Z - 072240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW MBG
TO 35 S DVL TO 35 N DVL.
..SMITH..07/07/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 664
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-051-107-111-119-167-072240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GRANT NORMAN
OTTER TAIL POLK WILKIN
$$
NDC003-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-039-043-045-047-051-063-071-
073-077-081-091-093-095-097-099-072240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS CAVALIER
DICKEY EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GRAND FORKS GRIGGS
KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN
MCINTOSH NELSON RAMSEY
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE STUTSMAN TOWNER
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.