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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 515 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 664...
DISCUSSION...UPSLOPE FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING. 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH
BRIEF TORNADOS AND/OR LANDSPOUTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 665 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 052215Z - 060500Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45WNW SNY/SIDNEY NE/ - 45WSW SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /35SSW BFF - 18SE TBE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.
LAT...LON 41340272 37020237 37020437 41340483
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 665 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 665
VALID 060335Z - 060440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FCL
TO 50 NW AKO TO 25 NW AKO TO 20 S AKO TO 25 E LIC TO 35 SSE LIC
TO 40 N LHX TO 35 ENE PUB TO 25 E COS TO 20 NE COS TO 15 NNE COS.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-031-035-039-073-087-123-060440-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER
DOUGLAS ELBERT LINCOLN
MORGAN WELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 665
VALID 060240Z - 060340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE FCL TO
30 WNW AKO TO 35 NE LIC TO 40 NNE LHX TO 15 ESE LHX TO 30 ENE TAD
TO 10 SW TAD.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-025-031-035-039-041-055-071-073-087-089-101-123-
060340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE CROWLEY
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS
LINCOLN MORGAN OTERO
PUEBLO WELD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 665
VALID 060130Z - 060240Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10
S CYS TO 20 ESE SNY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-
075-087-089-099-101-121-123-125-060240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA
KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 665
VALID 060030Z - 060140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-
075-087-089-099-101-121-123-125-060140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA
KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC033-105-060140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIMBALL
$$
WYC021-060140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 665
VALID 052335Z - 060040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..08/05/09
ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 665
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-009-011-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-
075-087-089-099-101-121-123-125-060040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA
BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY
DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT
EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA
KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN
LOGAN MORGAN OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON
WELD YUMA
$$
NEC033-105-060040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIMBALL
$$
WYC021-060040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LARAMIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.