Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EASTERN TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NERN LA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SWWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. LATEST WIND PROFILER AND VAD DATA
INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXCEEDING 50
KT ABOVE 300 MB. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD SSWWD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
POOL TO INTENSIFY...AND IF THIS OCCURS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMBINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 666 SEVERE TSTM LA TX CW 061750Z - 070100Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
75S GGG/LONGVIEW TX/ - 55ESE IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM EITHER SIDE /8N LFK - 17NE AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36020.
LAT...LON 32819473 32959226 29909222 29789469
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 666 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 666
VALID 062325Z - 070100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK
TO 35 WNW POE TO 15 N BPT TO 45 NE HOU.
WW 666 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070100Z.
..JEWELL..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC005-199-241-351-403-405-457-070100-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER
NEWTON SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 666
VALID 062220Z - 062340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW TXK
TO 25 W SHV TO 35 SW SHV TO 50 NE LFK TO 20 NW POE TO 30 NNW LFT.
..JEWELL..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-019-023-053-115-062340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU
CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS VERNON
$$
TXC005-073-183-199-203-241-245-347-351-361-365-401-403-405-419-
423-457-062340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG
HARDIN HARRISON JASPER
JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON
ORANGE PANOLA RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
SMITH TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-062340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 666
VALID 062135Z - 062240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SHV
TO 20 NW POE TO 35 NNW LFT.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-015-017-019-023-031-053-085-115-062240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON
DE SOTO JEFFERSON DAVIS SABINE
VERNON
$$
TXC005-199-203-241-245-315-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-
062240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-062240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 666
VALID 062030Z - 062140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE SHV TO
25 S IER TO 25 S ESF.
..KERR..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-015-017-019-023-031-053-069-079-081-085-115-119-
062140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD BOSSIER
CADDO CALCASIEU CAMERON
DE SOTO JEFFERSON DAVIS NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-199-203-241-245-315-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-
062140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-062140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 666
VALID 061935Z - 062040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ELD
TO 5 ENE ESF.
..KERR..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 666
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-031-043-053-069-079-081-085-
115-119-062040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE
BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU
CAMERON CLAIBORNE DE SOTO
GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS NATCHITOCHES
RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE
VERNON WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-199-203-241-245-315-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-
062040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA HARDIN HARRISON
JASPER JEFFERSON MARION
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SHELBY TYLER
$$
GMZ430-432-062040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
SABINE LAKE
CALCASIEU LAKE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.