Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE
PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 666...WW 667...WW 668...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WHILE PROGRESSING EWD INTO A
WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. REGIONAL VWPS
AND PROFILER DATA INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
...MEAD/HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 669 TORNADO NE SD 062210Z - 070500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20ENE RAP/RAPID CITY SD/ - 20ESE SNY/SIDNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /18NE RAP - 17ESE SNY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28020.
LAT...LON 44150126 40970127 40970397 44150408
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 669 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 669
VALID 070145Z - 070240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW SNY
TO 10 ESE BFF TO 30 SW CDR TO 50 WNW CDR.
..MEAD..08/07/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-123-161-070240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BOX BUTTE CHERRY
CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEITH MORRILL SHERIDAN
$$
SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-070240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON
SHANNON TODD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 669
VALID 070035Z - 070140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW SNY
TO 35 WSW CDR TO 45 NW CDR TO 60 WSW RAP.
..MEAD..08/07/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161-
165-070140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-070140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON
SHANNON TODD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 669
VALID 062345Z - 070040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..08/06/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161-
165-070040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE
CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES
DEUEL GARDEN GRANT
HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL
MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN
SIOUX
$$
SDC007-033-047-055-071-081-093-095-103-113-121-070040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE
MEADE MELLETTE PENNINGTON
SHANNON TODD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.