Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BUFFALO NEW YORK TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF ITHACA NEW YORK. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 684...WW 686...WW
687...WW 688...WW 689...
DISCUSSION...MCS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING RAPIDLY SSEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES AND INTO WRN NEW YORK THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE
STRONG...AND FEED OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS
ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30040.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 690 SEVERE TSTM NY LE LO 100050Z - 100700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
20NW BUF/BUFFALO NY/ - 20NE ITH/ITHACA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM EITHER SIDE /20NW BUF - 29S SYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30040.
LAT...LON 44067880 43617598 41757636 42207919
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 690 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 690
VALID 100400Z - 100540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N JHW TO
40 S ROC TO 35 NW ITH TO 25 S ART.
..NOAANWS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-023-067-075-097-099-101-109-123-100540-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CORTLAND ONONDAGA
OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN TOMPKINS YATES
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 690
VALID 100225Z - 100340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BUF TO
30 NE BUF TO 20 NNW ROC TO 60 NNE ROC.
..NOAA..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-011-013-023-029-037-051-055-067-069-073-075-097-099-
101-109-117-121-123-100340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA
CHAUTAUQUA CORTLAND ERIE
GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE
ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS
OSWEGO SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN TOMPKINS WAYNE
WYOMING YATES
$$
LEZ040-041-061-LOZ043-044-063-064-100340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY
HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY NY BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK NY
DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO NY
RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY EXTENDING FROM 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
