Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BEMIDJI MINNESOTA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SILVER BAY
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NRN MN. WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG...STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY
DEVELOP S OF E.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 691 SEVERE TSTM MN WI LS 150030Z - 150600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60SW BJI/BEMIDJI MN/ - 50ENE BFW/SILVER BAY MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /43ENE FAR - 69SW YQT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 47779583 48349041 46599041 46029583
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 691 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 691
VALID 150535Z - 150600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE AXN TO
25 ENE BJI TO 10 WSW ELO TO 45 NE ELO.
WW 691 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150600Z.
TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM NRN MN TO UPPER MI/NRN WI WITH
AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
..PETERS..07/15/08
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-075-137-150600-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON CASS
COOK CROW WING ITASCA
LAKE ST. LOUIS
$$
WIC007-031-150600-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYFIELD DOUGLAS
$$
LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-162-150600-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 691
VALID 150330Z - 150440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..07/15/08
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-005-007-017-021-029-031-035-057-061-071-075-111-137-159-
150440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN BECKER BELTRAMI
CARLTON CASS CLEARWATER
COOK CROW WING HUBBARD
ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE
OTTER TAIL ST. LOUIS WADENA
$$
WIC007-031-150440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYFIELD DOUGLAS
$$
LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-162-150440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN
TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI
PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.