Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1045 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF DUBOIS PENNSYLVANIA TO 35 MILES EAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 686...WW 689...WW 690...
DISCUSSION...WATCH IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF WW 690 WITH
STRENGTHENING MCS OVER WRN NY LIKELY SAGGING SSEWD INTO N-CENTRAL
PA/CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING ALONG PERIPHERY OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. WEAKENING INSTABILITY OVER ERN NY AND DEEPER INTO PA
SHOULD DIMINISH SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH UNTIL THEN
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 34035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 691 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 100245Z - 100700Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
10NNW DUJ/DUBOIS PA/ - 35E BGM/BINGHAMTON NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /47WSW SLT - 8N HNK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 34035.
LAT...LON 41957916 42837548 41567511 40687879
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 691 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 691
VALID 100645Z - 100700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BFD
TO 20 NNW IPT TO 25 NW AVP TO 30 NNE AVP TO 25 NW MSV.
REMAINDER WW 691 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100700Z.
..EDWARDS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC023-035-037-047-081-093-097-109-113-119-131-100700-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMERON CLINTON COLUMBIA
ELK LYCOMING MONTOUR
NORTHUMBERLAND SNYDER SULLIVAN
UNION WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 691
VALID 100535Z - 100640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF LINE FROM 20 N BFD TO
40 E BFD TO 30 NNE IPT TO 25 SSE BGM TO 40 ENE BGM.
..EDWARDS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC015-023-035-037-047-081-083-093-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-
123-131-100640-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON
COLUMBIA ELK LYCOMING
MCKEAN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
POTTER SNYDER SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION
WARREN WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 691
VALID 100500Z - 100640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..NOAANWS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-015-107-100640-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHEMUNG TIOGA
$$
PAC015-023-035-037-047-081-083-093-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-
123-131-100640-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON
COLUMBIA ELK LYCOMING
MCKEAN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
POTTER SNYDER SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION
WARREN WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 691
VALID 100400Z - 100540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..NOAANWS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC007-015-107-100540-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOME CHEMUNG TIOGA
$$
PAC015-023-035-037-047-081-083-093-097-105-109-113-115-117-119-
123-131-100540-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADFORD CAMERON CLINTON
COLUMBIA ELK LYCOMING
MCKEAN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
POTTER SNYDER SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION
WARREN WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.