Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 694
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OLATHE KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE BOW ECHO SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEST CENTRAL MO...ALTHOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENT
IN THE CHARACTER OF THE CONVECTIVE MESOSYSTEM MAY OCCUR AS IT
INTERACTS WITH STORMS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM IT. THE
ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MO
OWING TO PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER STRONG FORWARD
MOMENTUM OF THE BOW ECHO SYSTEM COUPLED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
STRONG UPDRAFTS INDICATES THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 694 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 101850Z - 110000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55SW OJC/OLATHE KS/ - 45SE SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /45W BUM - 49SW COU/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 39159544 39139295 37389295 37419544
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 694 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 694
VALID 102150Z - 102240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW SGF TO
50 WNW TBN.
..NOAANWS..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 694
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC037-167-102240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS POLK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 694
VALID 102020Z - 102140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CNU TO
10 NE MKC.
..GARNER..08/10/09
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 694
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC011-037-107-121-102140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CRAWFORD LINN
MIAMI
$$
MOC011-013-015-037-039-057-083-085-095-101-159-167-185-217-
102140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES BENTON
CASS CEDAR DADE
HENRY HICKORY JACKSON
JOHNSON PETTIS POLK
ST. CLAIR VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.