Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 400 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BUTTE MONTANA TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BILLINGS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS BECOMING
LOCALLY SEVERE. 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
NORTHEASTERLY/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 701 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 132200Z - 140600Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15NNW BTM/BUTTE MT/ - 65NNE BIL/BILLINGS MT/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM N/S /39SW HLN - 58NNE BIL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 47661262 48180801 45150801 44631262
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 701 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 701
VALID 140355Z - 140440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE BIL TO
20 WSW BIL TO 25 E 3HT TO 20 SSE LWT TO 75 NNE BIL.
..PETERS..08/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC037-065-111-140440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOLDEN VALLEY MUSSELSHELL YELLOWSTONE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 701
VALID 140230Z - 140340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE WEY
TO 20 WSW 3HT TO 35 ESE GTF TO 50 SW HVR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880.
..PETERS..08/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-009-015-027-037-045-065-067-095-097-107-111-140340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON
CHOUTEAU FERGUS GOLDEN VALLEY
JUDITH BASIN MUSSELSHELL PARK
STILLWATER SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 701
VALID 140140Z - 140240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE WEY
TO 30 NNW LVM TO 20 W 3HT TO 30 NNE GTF.
..PETERS..08/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-009-015-027-037-045-065-067-095-097-107-111-140240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON
CHOUTEAU FERGUS GOLDEN VALLEY
JUDITH BASIN MUSSELSHELL PARK
STILLWATER SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND
YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 701
VALID 140040Z - 140140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/14/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-007-009-013-015-027-031-037-043-045-049-057-059-065-
067-095-097-107-111-140140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER
CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU
FERGUS GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY
JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK
MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL
PARK STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140140-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 701
VALID 132335Z - 140040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..08/13/09
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 701
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC003-005-007-009-013-015-027-031-037-043-045-049-057-059-065-
067-095-097-107-111-140040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER
CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU
FERGUS GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY
JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK
MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL
PARK STILLWATER SWEET GRASS
WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE
$$
WYC033-140040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SHERIDAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.