Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 540 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF ABERDEEN
SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 702...WW 703...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHEAST SD/SOUTHEAST ND INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO REGION. THESE
STORMS ARE IN A REGION OF VERY UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 704 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 142240Z - 150600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW FAR/FARGO ND/ - 15S ABR/ABERDEEN SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /18S GFK - 11S ABR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 47659587 45229708 45229976 47659866
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 704 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 704
VALID 150235Z - 150340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ABR
TO 45 WSW FAR TO 20 S GFK.
..GRAMS..08/15/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-150340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
$$
NDC017-073-077-081-097-150340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT TRAILL
$$
SDC013-037-049-091-115-150340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DAY FAULK
MARSHALL SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 704
VALID 150145Z - 150240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW ABR
TO 45 WSW FAR TO 35 N JMS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1888.
..GRAMS..08/15/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-150240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
$$
NDC017-039-073-077-081-091-097-150240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GRIGGS RANSOM
RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE
TRAILL
$$
SDC013-037-049-091-115-150240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DAY FAULK
MARSHALL SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 704
VALID 142345Z - 150040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..08/14/09
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC027-107-167-150040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN WILKIN
$$
NDC003-017-021-031-039-045-073-077-081-091-093-097-150040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS DICKEY
FOSTER GRIGGS LAMOURE
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE STUTSMAN TRAILL
$$
SDC013-037-045-049-089-091-115-150040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DAY EDMUNDS
FAULK MCPHERSON MARSHALL
SPINK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.