Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES EAST OF NORTH PLATTE
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 706...
DISCUSSION...BOWING LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEB
AND WESTERN SD WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 707 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 160105Z - 160600Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45ENE PIR/PIERRE SD/ - 30E LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /34ENE PIR - 28E LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 44619780 41119856 41110163 44610105
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 707 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 707
VALID 160440Z - 160540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BUB TO
10 SE BUB TO 10 S ONL TO 35 ESE 9V9 TO 25 W HON TO 35 WNW HON.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899.
..PETERS..08/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC015-071-089-183-160540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOYD GARFIELD HOLT
WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-023-035-043-073-111-160540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE CHARLES MIX
DAVISON DOUGLAS JERAULD
SANBORN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 707
VALID 160340Z - 160440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW LBF TO
30 SE MHN TO 35 SSE ANW TO 40 S 9V9 TO 15 N 9V9 TO 45 ENE PIR.
..PETERS..08/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-041-071-089-111-113-115-149-183-160440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD CUSTER
GARFIELD HOLT LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP ROCK
WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-069-073-111-160440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND
HYDE JERAULD SANBORN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 707
VALID 160245Z - 160340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W LBF TO
25 S VTN TO 20 ENE VTN TO 25 S PIR TO 35 NE PHP.
..PETERS..08/16/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 707
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-015-041-071-089-111-113-115-117-149-171-183-160340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOYD CUSTER
GARFIELD HOLT LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
ROCK THOMAS WHEELER
$$
SDC003-005-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-065-069-073-085-111-117-
119-160340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BRULE
BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON
DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
LYMAN SANBORN STANLEY
SULLY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.