Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK
SMALL PART OF EASTERN OHIO
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF YOUNGSTOWN OHIO TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ELMIRA
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERER STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WATCH AS HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
AND ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING CINH. WITH 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS...SHORT BOWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HALES
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK
SMALL PART OF EASTERN OHIO
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF YOUNGSTOWN OHIO TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ELMIRA
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERER STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE WATCH AS HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
AND ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING CINH. WITH 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS...SHORT BOWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 708 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 201635Z - 210000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30SSW YNG/YOUNGSTOWN OH/ - 20ENE ELM/ELMIRA NY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /31W EWC - 55SSW SYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 41938090 43367654 41187654 39758090
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 708 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 708
VALID 202335Z - 210000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE IPT
TO 20 E IPT.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 708 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
21/00Z.
..KERR..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC001-043-071-075-107-133-210000-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS DAUPHIN LANCASTER
LEBANON SCHUYLKILL YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 708
VALID 202235Z - 202340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPT TO
30 NE IPT.
..KERR..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC001-037-041-043-055-071-075-093-097-099-107-109-113-119-133-
202340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN FRANKLIN LANCASTER
LEBANON MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SULLIVAN UNION YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 708
VALID 202130Z - 202240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW UNV TO
20 WSW SYR.
..KERR..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC015-097-099-202240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEMUNG SCHUYLER SENECA
$$
PAC001-009-015-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-071-075-081-
087-093-097-099-107-109-113-117-119-133-202240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BRADFORD
CENTRE CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON LYCOMING
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SULLIVAN TIOGA UNION
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 708
VALID 202035Z - 202140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE LBE
TO 25 WSW ELM TO 40 S ROC TO 20 N ITH.
..EDWARDS..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC015-097-099-101-123-202140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEMUNG SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN YATES
$$
PAC001-009-013-015-021-027-033-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-
071-075-081-087-093-097-099-107-109-111-113-117-119-133-
202140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
BRADFORD CAMBRIA CENTRE
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON LYCOMING
MIFFLIN MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA
UNION YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 708
VALID 201940Z - 202040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HLG TO
20 NW LBE TO 15 NNW DUJ TO 30 ENE BFD TO 40 S ROC TO 20 WSW SYR.
..DIAL..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC015-097-099-101-123-202040-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEMUNG SCHUYLER SENECA
STEUBEN YATES
$$
PAC009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-047-057-061-063-065-081-105-
111-113-117-125-129-202040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLAIR BRADFORD
CAMBRIA CAMERON CENTRE
CLEARFIELD CLINTON ELK
FULTON HUNTINGDON INDIANA
JEFFERSON LYCOMING POTTER
SOMERSET SULLIVAN TIOGA
WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC069-202040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
OHIO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 708
VALID 201840Z - 201940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE CAK
TO 25 SSE YNG TO 20 ENE YNG TO 20 NNE ERI.
PER WFO COORDINATION: CLE CLEARING ERN OH COUNTIES. CTP - SRN PA
COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED TO WW AREA.
..EDWARDS..07/20/08
ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 708
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC003-009-013-015-029-037-051-069-097-099-101-121-123-201940-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA
CHEMUNG ERIE GENESEE
LIVINGSTON ONTARIO SCHUYLER
SENECA STEUBEN WYOMING
YATES
$$
OHC019-029-067-081-201940-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL COLUMBIANA HARRISON
JEFFERSON
$$
PAC003-005-007-015-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-039-047-049-053-
063-065-073-081-083-085-105-113-117-121-123-125-129-201940-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BRADFORD BUTLER CAMBRIA
CAMERON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON CRAWFORD
ELK ERIE FOREST
INDIANA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE
LYCOMING MCKEAN MERCER
POTTER SULLIVAN TIOGA
VENANGO WARREN WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
$$
WVC009-029-069-201940-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK OHIO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.