Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 713...
DISCUSSION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NW OK AS THE LOW LEVELS MODIFY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. DESTABILIZATION IS REDUCING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW WITH A DIFFUSE TROUGH ACROSS
KS...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IN
THIS AREA FROM GAG-P28. THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH STORMS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM...AND THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD/ESEWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 714 TORNADO KS OK 192105Z - 200400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50WSW AVK/ALVA OK/ - 60ESE PNC/PONCA CITY OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /20ENE GAG - 19NW TUL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28025.
LAT...LON 37509950 37409609 35369609 35479950
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 714 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 714
VALID 200250Z - 200340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
..SMITH..08/20/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-019-033-035-077-191-200340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE
COWLEY HARPER SUMNER
$$
OKC003-011-017-037-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-081-083-093-
103-107-109-113-117-119-151-153-200340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BLAINE CANADIAN
CREEK CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
HARPER KAY KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA
OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.